TROPICAL STORM SANDY: HEADING FOR BAHAMAS (TRACKING / PATH MAPS, LATEST ABACO UPDATES 24 OCTOBER)


HURRICANE SANDY HEADING NORTH FOR BAHAMAS

INTERACTIVE REAL-TIME STORM TRACKER

Type in your location for current path predictionClick Pic!

UPDATE 24 OCT 18.00 EDT HURRICANE SANDY CROSSING JAMAICA

Sandy is now a Cat 1 hurricane as it crosses Jamaica and heads for eastern Cuba. As the latest projections show, the prospects for the Bahamas have worsened: hurricane force is expected over central and northern islands (see map below for Abaco detail).

I will not be in a position to post much in the way of updates between now and Monday – by which time Sandy should have cleared to the north of the Bahamas. The interactive tracker link at the top of this page is an excellent resource, especially as you can input a precise location. There is luckily a wealth of information out there on the internet – far more than for Irene last year. I notice too that Abaco residents are busy exchanging information on Facebook. While we are away, we’ll be thinking of all those in the path of the storm… 

DETAILED TRACKING PATH FOR THE BAHAMAS 24 OCTOBER 18.00 EDT

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPDATE EXTRACT 24 OCT 16.00 EDT

THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF JAMAICA NEAR KINGSTON AT APPROXIMATELY 3.00 PM EDT / 19.00 UTC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH / 130 KM/H
======================================
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 
SANDY REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH... CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN JAMAICA... 

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA and [SPECIFIED] REGIONS OF CUBA 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI, THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN REEF, FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY, FLORIDA BAY

UPDATE 24 OCT 05.00 EDT TS SANDY MARCHES NORTH OVER JAMAICA 

The latest maps below show TS / Hurricane Sandy at 5 am EDT today. Map 3 is the most useful for the current detailed Abaco prediction. Meanwhile, the US news indicates increasing concerns further north (much as happened with Irene last year)

TS SANDY POSITION & PROJECTED PATH 24 OCT 5.00 am EDTTS SANDY 5-DAY FORECAST 24 OCT 05.00 am EDT

TS SANDY DETAILED TRACKER 24 OCT 5.00 am EDT

TS SANDY POSITION & PROJECTED PATH 24 OCT 5.00 am EDT

CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR TS SANDY’S PATH UP THE US EAST COAST…

UPDATE 23 OCT 23.00 EDT TS Sandy is now approaching Jamaica. There are slight indications of weakening. The storm is predicted to reach Abaco on Friday. Meanwhile Albury’s have suspended the MH / HT ferries until Sandy has gone on its way north – in fact they are even planning to take them out of the water…

20121024-041119.jpg

UPDATE 23 OCT 21.00 GMT

9 hours have passed since the last update and I have now uploaded a recent close-up view of TS Sandy’s currently predicted path. The present storm position has moved north towards Jamaica, and the Cat 1 forecast remains. For the Bahamas the path has shifted slightly westwards.Comparison with MAP 1 (immediately below) show that Abaco – formerly near the western edge of the cone – is now squarely in the storm’s crosshairs. The eastward hook to the north of the Bahamas is now more pronounced. But all this remains computer prediction – who knows what will happen as Sandy passes over Jamaica and the landmass of Cuba…


UPDATE 23 OCT NOON GMT The lastest tracking maps from Wunderground updated an hour ago shows the progress northwards of TS Sandy. The main feature to note in Map 1 is the predicted increase to Cat 1 Hurricane for Jamaica and Cuba, before reverting to storm force as it approaches the Bahamas. That could of course change. Map 2 is a 5 day forecast made around 6 hours earlier today, showing the predicted path and timeline for Sandy. There’s no doubt that Abaco – and the Bahamas generally – will be taking a hit at the end of the week

MAP 1
MAP 2

ORIGINAL POST 22 OCT

Just as it looked as if the storm season was ending, Tropical Storm Sandy has formed south west of Jamaica, some 900 miles south of Miami, with a currently predicted path aiming at the Bahamas. At the same time Tropical Depression 19 is taking shape in the central Atlantic

WEATHERBUG reports “Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect for Jamaica and Haiti. This means tropical storm conditions are possible in the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch or Tropical Storm Warning may be required for Jamaica later tonight. Tropical Storm Sandy will begin to accelerate north to northeast through the middle of the week. It will approach Jamaica Tuesday night or early Wednesday, producing 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated higher totals in mountainous locations. This could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. It could even approach hurricane strength as it wallops Jamaica by the middle of the week.

Longer-range forecast computer models indicate that the system will slide northeastward across Cuba and then march into the Bahamas. After that, the forecast is a bit less clear. The system could track along the East Coast, bringing a coastal soaker as far north as New England during Halloween week or get kicked out to sea by a cold front that will swoop off the East Coast. All interests in the Bahamas and from the Florida Atlantic beaches to southern New England should pay particularly close attention to the progress of this tropical storm through the course of the week”.
CURRENT TRACKING & POSITION MAPS – MONDAY OCTOBER 22
ACCUWEATHER TRACKING MAP FOR ABACO

3 thoughts on “TROPICAL STORM SANDY: HEADING FOR BAHAMAS (TRACKING / PATH MAPS, LATEST ABACO UPDATES 24 OCTOBER)

    • Abaco scored a direct hit from Irene last year, with the eye passing directly overhead – luckily with relatively little major damage. This year it looked as though we were out of the woods (if an island can ever be described thus. No. Not really.) until… “Hello, Sandy”. It looks as though the worst (Cat 1) will be further south – Jamaica / Cuba. Poor them.

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      • We’ll hope for the best. I’ve always been a bit of a storm watcher. We had a few close calls when we lived on the coast of Virginia (many years ago). We also had the occasional nor’easter to deal with during the winter months.

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