HURRICANE SANDY HEADING NORTH FOR BAHAMAS
UPDATE 25 OCT 05.00 EDT HURRICANE SANDY CLEARING CUBA AS CAT. 2
Three hours passing has made a further difference, and not for the better. The landmass of Cuba, far from slowing the storm, has seen it intensify to Cat 2 – though so far that is predicted only as far as the south Bahamas… (Map 1). However the eastward drift into the Atlantic is still detectable – see Abaco detail, Map 2
UPDATE 25 OCT 02.00 EDT HURRICANE SANDY MAKES CUBA LANDFALL
As Sandy reaches the south coast of Cuba, two things have become clear overnight. First, the storm’s strength is now predicted at Cat 1 until it clears into the Atlantic north of the Bahamas – there will be no reduction to TS status in the south Bahamas (Map 1) Secondly, the news for Abaco is that a slight drift of the spine of the storm to the east can be detected (see Abaco Detail, Map 2). Yesterday, the eye was due to pass pretty much directly over MH and indeed (like Irene last year) the Delphi Club and Rolling Harbour. The shift may of course have no significant effect on the storm’s power, but if the eye’s path could continue to drift further east… Map 3 is the ‘hot’ map from 04.00 EDT today
FLIGHT ADVISORY As many on Abaco may already have found, there are flight disruptions from Nassau – I know of one person who couldn’t get to MH last night. So visitors following this blog and planning an imminent flight need to keep a careful eye on the situation, which given the path of the storm is likely to worsen.
I will not be in a position to post much in the way of updates between now and Monday – by which time Sandy should have cleared to the north of the Bahamas. The interactive tracker link at the top of this page is an excellent resource, especially as you can input a precise location. There is luckily a wealth of information out there on the internet – far more than for Irene last year. I notice too that Abaco residents are busy exchanging information on Facebook. While we are away, we’ll be thinking of all those in the path of the storm…
UPDATE 24 OCT 18.00 EDT HURRICANE SANDY CROSSING JAMAICA
Sandy is now a Cat 1 hurricane as it crosses Jamaica and heads for eastern Cuba. As the latest projections show, the prospects for the Bahamas have worsened: hurricane force is expected over central and northern islands (see map below for Abaco detail)
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPDATE EXTRACT 24 OCT 16.00 EDT
THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA NEAR KINGSTON AT APPROXIMATELY 3.00 PM EDT / 19.00 UTC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH / 130 KM/H ====================================== HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 SANDY REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH... CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN JAMAICA... CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA and [SPECIFIED] REGIONS OF CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI, THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN REEF, FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY, FLORIDA BAY
UPDATE 24 OCT 05.00 EDT TS SANDY MARCHES NORTH OVER JAMAICA
The latest maps below show TS / Hurricane Sandy at 5 am EDT today. Map 3 is the most useful for the current detailed Abaco prediction. Meanwhile, the US news indicates increasing concerns further north (much as happened with Irene last year)
CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR TS SANDY’S PATH UP THE US EAST COAST…
UPDATE 23 OCT 23.00 EDT TS Sandy is now approaching Jamaica.
There are slight indications of weakening. The storm is predicted to reach Abaco on Friday. Meanwhile Albury’s have suspended the MH / HT ferries until Sandy has gone on its way north – in fact they are even planning to take them out of the water…
UPDATE 23 OCT 21.00 GMT
9 hours have passed since the last update and I have now uploaded a recent close-up view of TS Sandy’s currently predicted path. The present storm position has moved north towards Jamaica, and the Cat 1 forecast remains. For the Bahamas the path has shifted slightly westwards.Comparison with MAP 1 (immediately below) show that Abaco – formerly near the western edge of the cone – is now squarely in the storm’s crosshairs. The eastward hook to the north of the Bahamas is now more pronounced. But all this remains computer prediction – who knows what will happen as Sandy passes over Jamaica and the landmass of Cuba…
UPDATE 23 OCT NOON GMT The lastest tracking maps from Wunderground updated an hour ago shows the progress northwards of TS Sandy. The main feature to note in Map 1 is the predicted increase to Cat 1 Hurricane for Jamaica and Cuba, before reverting to storm force as it approaches the Bahamas. That could of course change. Map 2 is a 5 day forecast made around 6 hours earlier today, showing the predicted path and timeline for Sandy. There’s no doubt that Abaco – and the Bahamas generally – will be taking a hit at the end of the week
ORIGINAL POST 22 OCT
Just as it looked as if the storm season was ending, Tropical Storm Sandy has formed south west of Jamaica, some 900 miles south of Miami, with a currently predicted path aiming at the Bahamas. At the same time Tropical Depression 19 is taking shape in the central Atlantic
WEATHERBUG reports “Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect for Jamaica and Haiti. This means tropical storm conditions are possible in the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch or Tropical Storm Warning may be required for Jamaica later tonight. Tropical Storm Sandy will begin to accelerate north to northeast through the middle of the week. It will approach Jamaica Tuesday night or early Wednesday, producing 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated higher totals in mountainous locations. This could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. It could even approach hurricane strength as it wallops Jamaica by the middle of the week.