‘HEY JUDE! DON’T MAKE IT BAD…’ A HURRICANE HITS THE UK


Storm Jude Newhaven Lighthouse

‘HEY JUDE! DON’T MAKE IT BAD…’ A HURRICANE HITS THE UK

Today is the Feast of St Jude. Patron Saint of lost causes and (more modernly) depression… and, some suggest, IBISES.

It is also the day of the most violent storm to hit the UK since 1987, with hurricane force winds recorded on the south coast (Force 12 on the BEAUFORT SCALE) and plenty of Force 11 ‘violent storm’ readings. There has been widespread damage to trees, cars and property, with 2 deaths so far reported, and one person missing at sea. Public transport is returning to normal, after the wholesale cancelation of flights, trains and other public transport services. 300,000 homes have had power outages. I fully realise that Abaconians have far more frequent and far worse hurricanes visited on them, the latest being Sandy last year and Irene the previous year. This is in no way a competition, but I thought some images from the UK over the last 24 hours or so might be of interest and dispel the notion that Britain is a country of benign 365/24/7 soft drizzle and gentle rain…

Brighton Pier, Sussexbrighton_2715167k

In 1987 a popular BBC weatherman had the misfortune to say on air “Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way… well, if you’re watching, don’t worry, there isn’t!”. That evening, the worst storm to hit South East England for three centuries caused record damage and killed 19 people. In contrast, the weather agencies were ahead of the game on this occasion, so Britain was well-prepared for the onslaught…

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The storm looms over the Dorset and Sussex coasts…Storm Jude massing off Dorset coastStorm Jude

The whole length of the south coast takes a hit, from Cornwall to KentImage 1Britain Stormstorm-weather-mari_2715597kstorm-boat-weather_2715542kNew England Makes Preparations For Hurricane Sandy ImpactStorm Jude Newhaven Lighthouse 2readers-storm-port_2715656k

And the coast of WalesStorm Jude Wales

Inland, there is damage to building and property. This crane fell onto a Government building in LondonStorm Jude collapsed crane, London_70749840_786671a0-9df9-45da-9066-6f73bb46e830 readers-storm-11_2715776k

A large number of trees have fallen, many onto cars in residential areasstorm-weather-tree_2715589k ad_119148649 readers-storm-tree_2715620k

Schools have not been closed, but some pupils needed to take an unorthodox route_70748775_81e1d53b-f22c-4738-9929-6389dac477e7 readers-storm-10_2715781k

More minor incidents involved some garden trashing – dammit, that’s our garden…Image 2

These 2 photos were taken on the Chesil Beach in Dorset, where Mrs Harbour and I were a couple of weeks ago, and which I posted about on my companion non-Abaco blog HERE. Below them is a photo of the same location I took then, for comparison.

Storm Jude Chesil BeachStorm Jude Chesil Beach 2chesil-bank-6

The highest wind velocity, around 100 MPH, was recorded at the Needles, a well-known geographical landmark on  the west side of the Isle of Wight in the English Channel. Here is a photo I took there a year ago, when things were calmer. The Needles, Isle of Wight

NEW PHOTOGRAPHS FROM CORNWALL CAN BE FOUND AT STORMY MONDAY (to continue the musical theme)

Saint Jude, St Peter’s Rome

CREDITS Many & various: news agencies; BBC; folk who have uploaded their pics onto news sites, both national & local, for wider viewing; anyone not covered by the aforementioned...

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL HEADS FOR BAHAMAS & ABACO: REGULAR UPDATES


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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL HEADS FOR BAHAMAS & ABACO…

EX-CHANTAL ACTIVE AFTER-EFFECTS FOR BAHAMAS JULY 12

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… AND DISSIPATES AS AT 17.00 EDT July 10

TD Chantal dissipated NOAA

UPDATE NOAA 11.00 EDT July 10

The storm path seems to be drifting gradually westwards. Abaco is now clear of the currently predicted path, rather than slap bang in the middle…

Chantal NOAA 10.7 11.00

UPDATE NOAA 6.00 EDT July 10

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UPDATE INTELLICAST 17.00 July 9  Intellicast 9.07.13 17.00

ORIGINAL POST

The 9th July, the season of storms starts to loom, and Chantal is first off the meteorological starting blocks. The reason I am posting this now is because the present 5-day predictions (see NOAA charts below) has Chantal heading directly for the Bahamas in general, and Abaco in particular. So this may be one to keep a weather eye on over the next few days…

NOAA GraphicNOAA imageTS Chantal 9.7 1 NOAA Image

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR: RH GOING TO THE DOGS?


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NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR: RH GOING TO THE DOGS?

En route from London to New York yesterday we had to take a northerly route over Greenland (we were in a plane, obviously) to avoid Nemo. I took the pics below from 36k feet from the galley window. The landscape was simply a vast wilderness of mountain, forest, snow and frozen lakes & rivers. No idea how they will look in Blogland. I’ll tidy this up – or bin it – next week when I can use something bigger than an iPhone to post with.

Thanks to people who have commented / asked Qs (including the person from Newfoundland who wants to know about flamingos). Replies shelved until next week. It’s raining heavily in NYC today, which should see off the remains of quite a heavy snow dump (later note: it didn’t!).Newfoundland : Labrador aerial view 2Newfoundland : Labrador aerial view 1Newfoundland : Labrador aerial view 3  Newfoundland : Labrador aerial view 6Newfoundland : Labrador aerial view 4Newfoundland : Labrador aerial view 7This last close-up image looks almost surreal, with a frozen river appearing to cross over itself…

GOOD WEATHER ON ABACO…?


…well it’s a bit different in the UK where Mr & Mrs RH have slipped away for a few days from mainland to island. So, lucky you guys in the sun…

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But we are not downcast. We have our dreams to insulate us from cold, driving rain and howling gales. And a pub 3 minutes walk away (and 10 minutes stagger back…)

20121120-175317.jpgPosted via iphone – it sort of works…

HOLE-IN-THE WALL ABACO: “MIND THE GAP” – A NEW ISLET IS BORN


HOLE-IN-THE WALL ABACO: “MIND THE GAP” – A NEW ISLET IS BORN

17th October 2012

Jack Bowers and friends visited Hole-in-the-Wall and took what are probably the last photos of Hole-in-the-Wall before Hurricane Sandy struck, and the central arch was smashed into the sea – this one below, and others HERE

6th November 2012

Less than 3 weeks later, John Haestad made the same trip towards the end of the promontory. This time, it was different. The arch was gone. Beyond the breach, a new islet, separated from the mainland by a foaming channel. John has kindly given use permission, and you are now looking at what may be the first image of Abaco’s new geography. A feature that had appeared on maps since at least the early c18, been a landmark for marine navigation for centuries, and lent its name to the lighthouse station, has gone forever. A very small island at the southeastern tip of Abaco has been born…

HOLE-IN-THE-WALL PROMONTORY, ABACO
(Since posting this, Jack Bowers has come up with ‘Holy Isle’, which has a certain ring to it…)

ADDITION I have now found a photo by Jennifer Arrington (to whom thanks for use permission) which shows from a helpful angle both the intact Hole and the small tip of land beyond, now an island. Many photographers are understandably drawn to the Hole itself by the time they have trekked across the sharp uneven rocks to get to it. This is one of the few I have found that gives a wider perspective.

HOLE-IN-THE-WALL: THE ‘ISLAND’ BEFORE IT BECAME ONE…

AFTERWORD FROM ROLLING HARBOUR

For an interesting philosophical and metaphysical discussion on whether the collapse of the arch made any sound if there was no one (and / or no living creature) there to hear it, check out IF A TREE FALLS IN A FOREST… but please don’t if that sort of arcane  and /or pointless argument drives you mad with irritation 

ABACO’S ‘HOLE-IN-THE-WALL’ BEFORE SANDY DEMOLITION: FIRST & LAST EVER IMAGES


ABACO’S HOLE-IN-THE-WALL BEFORE HURRICANE SANDY DESTRUCTION

THE FIRST & LAST EVER IMAGES OF A GEOGRAPHICAL LANDMARK

This post follows on directly from my PREVIOUS POST about Hurricane Sandy’s destruction of Abaco’s Hole-in-the -Wall rock ‘bridge’. Thanks to Abaco resident Jack Bowers, his camera and his kind permission, I am able to show what are almost certainly the very first and the very last pictures of Abaco’s Hole in the Wall aka ‘Hole in the Rock’, the landmark rock formation at the southeastern tip of the island.

THE EARLIEST KNOWN PICTURE OF HOLE-IN-THE-WALL

The earliest picture that I have been able to trace is a fine nautical aquatint dated 1803 by J.Wells based on a shipman’s sketch. There’s more detail about it in the previous post, but for the full details of this picture, its origin, and a very early description of  one of Abaco’s best-known features CLICK HOLE-IN-THE-WALL AQUATINT 

THE LAST PICTURES EVER TAKEN OF THE HOLE IN THE WALL, ABACO

Jack Bowers and some friends visited Hole-in-the-Wall a week before Hurricane Sandy swept in from the south. He writes “I hiked all around (and foolishly IN) the Hole on 10/17/12, a week before its demise. I may have the last photos taken of various aspects of it, if needed. I noticed some serious cracks (mostly on the proximal side of the arch) and placed my feet carefully away from them, but the collapse did not seem this imminent. I also shot some nice shots of the lighthouse from the distal point of the rocks (a shot not easily obtainable now). Trying to find a positive, the new “Window” should provide some spectacular new splashes that the arch used to largely contain”. Please note that the very fine photos below are all ©Jack Bowers

The ‘Land’s End’ promontory of Abaco, taken from the lighthouse station. The Hole is (was) near the tip.

Looking back to the lighthouse on the hike south

Rough seas ahead…  foreshadowing the later rock destruction                

A last view of ‘Hole in the Wall’ as it used to look….     

The dramatic view from below the arch – it will never be seen like this again…

ABACO’S CHANGED GEOGRAPHY AS FROM 10.24.12 FOR ALL ETERNITY

HOLE-IN-THE-WALL: LATE PLEISTOCENE EPOCH to LATE OCTOBER 2012

Very soon after these photos were taken, the history of the Hole and the geography of Abaco abruptly changed. The weather worsened, Tropical Storm Sandy gathered strength north of Cuba to reach hurricane force, and a week later the rock arch had been simply smashed into the boiling sea by the combined power of wind and the water. It seems unlikely that in the intervening week, with a major storm approaching, anyone else will have made the long rough drive 15 miles along the track to the lighthouse, traversed the difficult terrain of the promontory, risked the increasing winds and swelling seas, and calmly toted a camera at the underside of the arch. So unless and until I hear otherwise, I shall consider Jack’s pictures to be the final record of an Abaco landmark known to sailors for many centuries, mapped by name since 1738 (or earlier), first depicted in 1803 and probably in existence since the last ice-age. R.I.P. (Rest in Pieces)

AFTERWORD: DOES THIS SORT OF THING HAPPEN OFTEN ON ABACO?

Yes. As elsewhere in the Bahamas or indeed any hurricane zone. Here’s an example from last year demonstrating the power of Hurricane Irene, which also scored a direct hit on Abaco. The top photo is a shot of the Delphi Club beach at Rolling Harbour looking south, taken by me in early 2011. I have cropped it to enlarge the view of the large rock in the sea beyond the small bay on the middle left. It’s a substantial, solid, slab visible at all tides.

Hurricane Irene passed directly overhead on August 26 / 27 2011. Here’s my photo taken this year, showing the rock with the centre blasted out during the storm. Impressive damage! (That little piece of foreshore needs a clean-up… most of that stuff looks like plastic junk / nylon rope etc, the sort of detritus that takes a mere century or three to degrade…)

HURRICANE SANDY: VIEWS FROM SPACE, STORM SURGES & THE THREAT TO NEW YORK…


INTERACTIVE HURRICANE SANDY STORM TRACKER

Type in your location for current path prediction

Click Pic!

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

1. SCARY BEAUTY

HURRICANE SANDY: VIEWS FROM SPACE

LATEST NASA-GOES IMAGE 29 OCTOBER

 

Photo credits NASA-GOES, NOAA, BBC & honourable tips of the hat to sundry Sandy magpies

2. STORM SURGE

HURRICANE SANDY’S THREAT TO NEW YORK

US EAST COAST FLOOD PROJECTION MAP

“12 FEET” The biggest fear from this storm in the New York City area is the storm surge. Right now anything from 6 to 12 feet seems quite possible. The greatest storm surge in modern history at Battery Park was 10.5 feet in 1960. Irene’s storm surge was a little over four feet in New York. That’s why you’re seeing evacuations in New York (extract, Guardian UK)

sandy storm surge

Photo credit: Noaa.gov

FOR 9 MORE REASONS THAT MAKE SANDY AN EXCEPTIONAL STORM, CLICK HERE

HURRICANE SANDY AFTERMATH: ABACO PICTURES, NEWS FROM DELPHI CLUB, BAHAMAS & MANATEE UPDATE


DAMAGE FROM HURRICANE SANDY AT THE DELPHI CLUB, ABACO

The storm has passed from the Bahamas and the clear-up is underway – but further north communities are bracing themselves for the onslaught. The news today  from contacts, from Facebook and the web generally, is of thankfully little lasting damage, with power and comms restored in many places. There’s been plenty of flooding – eg Sandy Point – and tree / plant mayhem.

The Delphi Club was again, as with Irene last year, almost directly beneath the eye of the storm. Then, a couple of leaves were lost from the pineapple crown (above), a few fittings were smashed, and the gardens were unceremoniously rearranged. Peter Mantle, Delphi Club supremo, has posted his record of the last few days at the club – the approach of Sandy, the storm, and the aftermath. I am posting extracts below, to be read (chronologically) from the bottom entry to the top of the page. For those who haven’t experienced a storm of this violence, Peter’s account gives a vivid picture of the before, the during and the after…

Apologies for having posted about Sandy in detail with maps etc, and at the crucial time tailing off  while I was away and had only an iPhone™  and a sporadic connection…

STOP PRESS: AMERICAN OYSTERCATCHERS – BRAVE OR FOOLISH? 29 October

Peter Mantle has just sent me a ‘Sandy’ photo from the Delphi Club beach, showing a group of oystercatchers on the rocks at one end of Rolling Harbour. Storm detritus already festoons the rocks. Have the birds seen what’s about to hit them? Are they waterproof? 

STOP PRESS: BMMRO MANATEE UPDATE 29 October

The BMMRO has posted news from Sandy Point and for those who have been asking after manatee Georgie’s welfare, an update:

“Hi Everyone, everything is ok here at the research center! We are working on getting information on Georgie’s whereabouts and we will happily update everyone as soon as we hear anything. There’s still a bit of damage here in Abaco that is preventing travel but hopefully we will be able to get up to Georgie soon”.

STOP PRESS: SOME ABACO IMAGES 28 October

(credits to Timothy Roberts & Cindy James Pinder and their facebook posts)

SANDY TAKES BONEFISH; DARK HUMOUR ON DARK DAYS

OCTOBER 27th Among the many bits of minor damage caused by Hurricane Sandy was the destruction of our bonefish weather vane. This had been hand-made by the other Sandy, our general manager, and stood atop his lodgings. Snapped off, the copper creation was found nearby, bruised and dented, rather like ourselves.

Yet again, we have been very fortunate – staff and guests are all well. And most of the damage caused by the 100mph winds was minor. The storm had its moments, but the worst bits were at nighttime when many people were huddled safe in bed. Lots of bumps and bangs provided a spooky soundtrack, but it was more of a B movie than a full-blown Hollywood epic. That said, I hate to think what a really big Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane would be like.

We still have no mains electricity; thank God for the gennie. We have no phones or mobile connection, so we have little idea of what is going on elsewhere on the island. We hope for the best but fear not all will have escaped as lightly as we did. Some of the staff from Crossing Rocks are stranded here by flooding. But the wireless internet is back so all will soon be revealed.

Yet again, the gardens have been shredded. The banana trees have been snapped off mid-fruiting. My favorite banyan tree has broken in half again, having nearly bounced back from Irene. The big Bismark ferns are banjaxed, the bougainvillea is blasted leafless and the pool is a mess. But who cares. We are fine. Dunkirk spirit? Well, very black humour and spirits of a different kind have seen us through.

“I survived Sandy” T-shirts are now in preparation, but that’s a staff joke about their hyperactive and heroic boss…..

A BAD HAIR DAY…

OCTOBER 25th It is getting distinctly breezy here, with winds as bad as any Irish gale. But Hurricane Sandy, now upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane, is still some 18 hours away and currently features average winds of 105mph with higher gusts. It may get even worse, they say. So no fishing today. More guests have made it in. Bahamasair even ran a plane out of Nassau at first light this morning.

While we still have power and phones, the lines are buzzing and we are glued to the internet. It seems odd to see that Sandy is the lead news story on the BBC. Non-technical guests have adjourned to the library (where “A Perfect Storm” and “Winnie the Poo and the Blustery Day” are current favourites). The air of gloom is more attributable to the fact that Arsenal lost at home last night than to any fears for personal safety.

We may go quiet for a while.

NOTHING VERY FEMININE ABOUT THIS SANDY

OCTOBER 24th, noon Tropical storms are now given boys’ and girls’ names alternately; in the old days they were all girls. The one that currently threatens us is Sandy, a name that is more commonly applied to females in this part of the world. But there is nothing too feminine about this storm; as the forecast deteriorates and Sandy intensifies into a hurricane over Jamaica, we are becoming more and more concerned by its macho capabilities.

The National Hurricane Centre now predicts that Sandy will pass very close to Abaco – the predicted path having shifted overnight. As it now looks, the eye may pass just 25 miles from us, which would basically be a direct hit since damaging winds spread far out from the centre. We are going to have to keep a very close on on this little girl over the next 48 hours.

ALL EYES ON SANDY

OCTOBER 23rd No sooner has the Club reopened for the new season than a tropical storm appears on the horizon. And, in a twist of divine humour, it’s been christened after our general manager, Sandy.

Sandy (the mostly human version) is tracking Sandy (the swirling tempest) on an hourly basis. As it now stands, we are in the “cone” of the likely track of the storm over coming days. Currently south of Jamaica, TS Sandy is turning north and could yet morph into a hurricane. It’s expected to be over or near us by Friday night, with “average” winds of nearly 60mph and gusts of up to 90mph.

Hatches will therefore be battened, outdoor furniture put back indoors and supplies of grog reinforced. The lucky fishers in residence will have to take a breather, while the new chef, John, will receive a special form of baptism.

Tropical storms this late in the year are a great rarity. Somehow that is not very reassuring just now. But the forecast for the following week is rather better… 

Click image to visit the Delphi Club

HURRICANE SANDY AFTERMATH: ABACO, BAHAMAS (+ TRACKING / RADAR MAPS 14.00 EDT 27 OCTOBER)


HURRICANE SANDY AFTERMATH: UPDATE FOR ABACO 27 0CTOBER 1400 EDT

There’s little to add to the earlier comment today. Messages I have received are of the brief “it’s all ok” sort. I’ve heard that some have got power back – but I have also seen warnings that in some places it will take longer to rectify. Here are some images from Marsh Harbour yesterday.
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HURRICANE SANDY AFTERMATH: UPDATE FOR ABACO 27 OCTOBER 0400 EDT

A quick scan of emails and online reports for Abaco & the Cays indicates widespread flooding and tree damage, a few boat problems, outages and comms loss – 20 out of 22 cellphone towers are down. I’ve seen no reports of significant injury or property damage. More later.

SANDY NOW CLEAR OF ABACO 1900 EDT
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SANDY STORMS NORTH
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HURRICANE SANDY LATEST UPDATES 26 OCTOBER 11.00 EDT ABACO BAHAMAS via iPhone and a dodgy network link…

Back to Cat 1 but right on target… Dune at White Sound holds, but plenty of water…! HT & Seaspray report 10″ water above docks… beach erosions reported elsewhere… Flooding & tree damage but no reports yet of injury or heavy damage to houses

NEW IMAGES including hurricane hunter cloudscape – eye of the storm passing over east Abaco… GOOD LUCK TODAY

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HURRICANE SANDY HEADING NORTH FOR BAHAMAS

INTERACTIVE STORM TRACKER

Type in your location for current path predictionClick Pic!

UPDATE 25 OCT 05.00 EDT HURRICANE SANDY CLEARING CUBA AS CAT. 2

Three hours passing has made a further difference, and not for the better. The landmass of Cuba, far from slowing the storm, has seen it intensify to Cat 2 – though so far that is predicted only as far as the south Bahamas… (Map 1). However the eastward drift into the Atlantic is still detectable – see Abaco detail, Map 2

UPDATE 25 OCT 02.00 EDT HURRICANE SANDY MAKES CUBA LANDFALL

As Sandy reaches the south coast of Cuba, two things have become clear overnight. First, the storm’s strength is now predicted at Cat 1 until it clears into the Atlantic north of the Bahamas – there will be no reduction to TS status in the south Bahamas (Map 1) Secondly, the news for Abaco is that a slight drift of the spine of the storm to the east can be detected (see Abaco Detail, Map 2). Yesterday, the eye was due to pass pretty much directly over MH and indeed (like Irene last year) the Delphi Club and Rolling Harbour. The shift may of course have no significant effect on the storm’s power, but if the eye’s path could continue to drift further east… Map 3 is the ‘hot’ map from 04.00 EDT today

FLIGHT ADVISORY As many on Abaco may already have found, there are flight disruptions from Nassau – I know of one person who couldn’t get to MH last night. So visitors following this blog and planning an imminent flight need to keep a careful eye on the situation, which given the path of the storm is likely to worsen.

I will not be in a position to post much in the way of updates between now and Monday – by which time Sandy should have cleared to the north of the Bahamas. The interactive tracker link at the top of this page is an excellent resource, especially as you can input a precise location. There is luckily a wealth of information out there on the internet – far more than for Irene last year. I notice too that Abaco residents are busy exchanging information on Facebook. While we are away, we’ll be thinking of all those in the path of the storm…

UPDATE 24 OCT 18.00 EDT HURRICANE SANDY CROSSING JAMAICA

Sandy is now a Cat 1 hurricane as it crosses Jamaica and heads for eastern Cuba. As the latest projections show, the prospects for the Bahamas have worsened: hurricane force is expected over central and northern islands (see map below for Abaco detail)

DETAILED TRACKING PATH FOR THE BAHAMAS 24 OCTOBER 18.00 EDT

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPDATE EXTRACT 24 OCT 16.00 EDT

THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF JAMAICA NEAR KINGSTON AT APPROXIMATELY 3.00 PM EDT / 19.00 UTC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH / 130 KM/H
======================================
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 
SANDY REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH... CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN JAMAICA... 

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA and [SPECIFIED] REGIONS OF CUBA 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI, THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN REEF, FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY, FLORIDA BAY

UPDATE 24 OCT 05.00 EDT TS SANDY MARCHES NORTH OVER JAMAICA

The latest maps below show TS / Hurricane Sandy at 5 am EDT today. Map 3 is the most useful for the current detailed Abaco prediction. Meanwhile, the US news indicates increasing concerns further north (much as happened with Irene last year)

TS SANDY POSITION & PROJECTED PATH 24 OCT 5.00 am EDTTS SANDY 5-DAY FORECAST 24 OCT 05.00 am EDT

TS SANDY DETAILED TRACKER 24 OCT 5.00 am EDT

TS SANDY POSITION & PROJECTED PATH 24 OCT 5.00 am EDT

CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR TS SANDY’S PATH UP THE US EAST COAST…

UPDATE 23 OCT 23.00 EDT TS Sandy is now approaching Jamaica.

Continue reading

HURRICANE SANDY: CUBA, BAHAMAS (TRACKING / PATH MAPS, LATEST ABACO UPDATES 25 OCTOBER)


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HURRICANE SANDY HEADING NORTH FOR BAHAMAS

INTERACTIVE STORM TRACKER

Type in your location for current path predictionClick Pic!

UPDATE 25 OCT 05.00 EDT HURRICANE SANDY CLEARING CUBA AS CAT. 2

Three hours passing has made a further difference, and not for the better. The landmass of Cuba, far from slowing the storm, has seen it intensify to Cat 2 – though so far that is predicted only as far as the south Bahamas… (Map 1). However the eastward drift into the Atlantic is still detectable – see Abaco detail, Map 2

UPDATE 25 OCT 02.00 EDT HURRICANE SANDY MAKES CUBA LANDFALL

As Sandy reaches the south coast of Cuba, two things have become clear overnight. First, the storm’s strength is now predicted at Cat 1 until it clears into the Atlantic north of the Bahamas – there will be no reduction to TS status in the south Bahamas (Map 1) Secondly, the news for Abaco is that a slight drift of the spine of the storm to the east can be detected (see Abaco Detail, Map 2). Yesterday, the eye was due to pass pretty much directly over MH and indeed (like Irene last year) the Delphi Club and Rolling Harbour. The shift may of course have no significant effect on the storm’s power, but if the eye’s path could continue to drift further east… Map 3 is the ‘hot’ map from 04.00 EDT today

FLIGHT ADVISORY As many on Abaco may already have found, there are flight disruptions from Nassau – I know of one person who couldn’t get to MH last night. So visitors following this blog and planning an imminent flight need to keep a careful eye on the situation, which given the path of the storm is likely to worsen.

I will not be in a position to post much in the way of updates between now and Monday – by which time Sandy should have cleared to the north of the Bahamas. The interactive tracker link at the top of this page is an excellent resource, especially as you can input a precise location. There is luckily a wealth of information out there on the internet – far more than for Irene last year. I notice too that Abaco residents are busy exchanging information on Facebook. While we are away, we’ll be thinking of all those in the path of the storm…

UPDATE 24 OCT 18.00 EDT HURRICANE SANDY CROSSING JAMAICA

Sandy is now a Cat 1 hurricane as it crosses Jamaica and heads for eastern Cuba. As the latest projections show, the prospects for the Bahamas have worsened: hurricane force is expected over central and northern islands (see map below for Abaco detail)

DETAILED TRACKING PATH FOR THE BAHAMAS 24 OCTOBER 18.00 EDT

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPDATE EXTRACT 24 OCT 16.00 EDT

THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF JAMAICA NEAR KINGSTON AT APPROXIMATELY 3.00 PM EDT / 19.00 UTC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH / 130 KM/H
======================================
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 
SANDY REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH... CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN JAMAICA... 

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA and [SPECIFIED] REGIONS OF CUBA 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI, THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN REEF, FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY, FLORIDA BAY

UPDATE 24 OCT 05.00 EDT TS SANDY MARCHES NORTH OVER JAMAICA

The latest maps below show TS / Hurricane Sandy at 5 am EDT today. Map 3 is the most useful for the current detailed Abaco prediction. Meanwhile, the US news indicates increasing concerns further north (much as happened with Irene last year)

TS SANDY POSITION & PROJECTED PATH 24 OCT 5.00 am EDTTS SANDY 5-DAY FORECAST 24 OCT 05.00 am EDT

TS SANDY DETAILED TRACKER 24 OCT 5.00 am EDT

TS SANDY POSITION & PROJECTED PATH 24 OCT 5.00 am EDT

CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR TS SANDY’S PATH UP THE US EAST COAST…

UPDATE 23 OCT 23.00 EDT TS Sandy is now approaching Jamaica.

Continue reading

TROPICAL STORM SANDY: HEADING FOR BAHAMAS (TRACKING / PATH MAPS, LATEST ABACO UPDATES 24 OCTOBER)


HURRICANE SANDY HEADING NORTH FOR BAHAMAS

INTERACTIVE REAL-TIME STORM TRACKER

Type in your location for current path predictionClick Pic!

UPDATE 24 OCT 18.00 EDT HURRICANE SANDY CROSSING JAMAICA

Sandy is now a Cat 1 hurricane as it crosses Jamaica and heads for eastern Cuba. As the latest projections show, the prospects for the Bahamas have worsened: hurricane force is expected over central and northern islands (see map below for Abaco detail).

I will not be in a position to post much in the way of updates between now and Monday – by which time Sandy should have cleared to the north of the Bahamas. The interactive tracker link at the top of this page is an excellent resource, especially as you can input a precise location. There is luckily a wealth of information out there on the internet – far more than for Irene last year. I notice too that Abaco residents are busy exchanging information on Facebook. While we are away, we’ll be thinking of all those in the path of the storm… 

DETAILED TRACKING PATH FOR THE BAHAMAS 24 OCTOBER 18.00 EDT

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPDATE EXTRACT 24 OCT 16.00 EDT

THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF JAMAICA NEAR KINGSTON AT APPROXIMATELY 3.00 PM EDT / 19.00 UTC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH / 130 KM/H
======================================
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 
SANDY REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH... CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN JAMAICA... 

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA and [SPECIFIED] REGIONS OF CUBA 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI, THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN REEF, FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY, FLORIDA BAY

UPDATE 24 OCT 05.00 EDT TS SANDY MARCHES NORTH OVER JAMAICA 

The latest maps below show TS / Hurricane Sandy at 5 am EDT today. Map 3 is the most useful for the current detailed Abaco prediction. Meanwhile, the US news indicates increasing concerns further north (much as happened with Irene last year) Continue reading

CHILLIN’ ON ABACO VS CHILLY IN ENGLAND


CHILLIN’ ON ABACO VS CHILLY IN ENGLAND

“Life’s a beach”, it is said. On Abaco, a new season is starting at the Delphi Club, and the first guests will be sorting out their fishing tackle, reaching for the sun cream and abandoning pre-Delphi diet boot-camp. If they have been eating Marmite™ sandwiches for a week before their arrival, they won’t need  to waste energy slapping no-see-ums. The day-dreaming becomes reality, perhaps involving his ‘n’ hers rods near the rocks at one end of the beach

That’s all well and good. But in more northern latitudes the slide from summer via autumn to winter is accelerating. The trout fishing season has just ended, with my final efforts washed away by heavy rain and flooding – this photo is the road leading to one of the beats, a sure meteorological sign that a visit to the local pub would be sensible… 

A pint of beer in front of a log fire soon puts things into perspective, and the mind can wander to warmer climates, the bonefishing prospects for the season, and the calm beauty of Rolling Harbour…

Two days ago, the UK temperature dropped sharply, the skies began to clear and the sun came back. Ah! Autumn – season of tum-ti-tum and mellow wotsit… 

At one moment there was a wonderful double rainbow across the fields

This was followed by a bright starry night & the thermometer dropping abruptly to -6˚F. And then this – the first frost of the year…

  These photos are of patterns on the car roof & windscreen, before the sun thawed the ice

     

Brrrrrrrrr. Best not to end on a freezing note. Back to Rolling Harbour for some warmth

TROPICAL STORM NADINE: PREDICTED TO STAY MID-ATLANTIC


TROPICAL STORM NADINE STAYING MID-ATLANTIC 12 Sept 2012

WEATHERBUG reports: “After a couple weeks full of tropical activity as the Atlantic season reaches its peak, a midweek quiet spell is underway. Tropical Storm Nadine, over the wide-open Atlantic far from land, is the only system being watched.

Tropical Storm Nadine, as of 11 a.m. AST (EDT) is located at 19.1 N and 47.6 W, or 940 miles east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles. It has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, and it is moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph. Nadine`s minimum central pressure has dropped to 997 mb, or 29.44 inches of mercury. Light upper-level winds will likely allow Tropical Storm Nadine to become a hurricane Thursday as it continues moving to the northwest. The latest forecasts show it taking a northeast turn by the end of the week, staying away from any land for at least a week or longer.”

It looks as though Nadine will thankfully stay over open ocean – and well to the east of the Bahamas

A MAP OF HURRICANES WORLDWIDE SINCE 1851: THE PLANET’S HOT-SPOTS


HURRICANE PATHS ON PLANET EARTH

Hurricanes. Extreme weather events that can strike anywhere in the world’s vulnerable zones. But where are these to be found? And in those zones, is there any historical evidence demonstrating that particular areas of the world are more vulnerable than others? A recent post on the very informative ABACO SCIENTIST website includes a comprehensive map of all hurricanes recorded since 1851. This map gives a clear picture of the hot-spots and danger areas. 

Delphi Club Abaco 25 Aug 2011 / Hurricane Irene: Looking south from the balcony

The source is NASA and the article may be found HERE. I reproduce the map and explanation, with acknowledgement to John Nelson and IDV Solutions. Each blue link in the explanation below will take you to a new source of hurricane information, so the article is a valuable resource as a gateway to further hurricane knowledge.

EXPLANATION AND WORLD MAP

“Should you be worried about hurricanes? To find out, it is useful to know where hurricanes have gone in the past. The Earth map shows the path of every hurricane reported since 1851, Although striking, a growing incompleteness exists in the data the further one looks back in time. The Earth map graphically indicates that hurricanes — sometimes called cyclones or typhoons depending on where they form — usually occur over water, which makes sense since evaporating warm water gives them energy. The map also shows that hurricanes never cross — or even occur very near — the Earth’s equator, since the Coriolis effect goes to zero there, and hurricanes need the Coriolis force to circulate. The Coriolis force also causes hurricane paths to arc away from the equator. Although incompleteness fogs long term trends and the prevalence of hurricanes remains a topic of research, evidence is accumulating that hurricanes are, on the average, more common and more powerful in the North Atlantic Ocean over the past 20 years.”

Image Credit & Copyright: John Nelson, IDV Solutions

The eye of Hurricane Irene passes directly over the Delphi Club, Abaco 26 August 2011

The image below was shared on Facebook, but I don’t have the inventor’s name. I’m sorry not to be able to identify the originator of this ingenious hurricane warning. Every home should have one… 

STORM AT ROLLING HARBOUR, ABACO JUNE 2012


STORM AT ROLLING HARBOUR, ABACO JUNE 2012

Well, it’s a shame that in my homespun way I had to press ‘Publish’ when I meant to press ‘Preview’. I just wanted to check if these stills from a video of a massive storm over the Delphi Club at 3.00 a.m. one June night might be worth putting up. This item was for ‘in due course’ and not for now. I’d just decided that they aren’t really worth it, when I realised what I had done. So I may as well go ahead with it… Apologies to all those who are signed up and have got an email just saying “STORM”. I’ll have a word with the management.

Now that this gallery is out there, I should add this storm raged and rumbled for much of the night, with some spectacular rain, lightning and thunder – standing on a balcony watching it was quite an experience. At times the whole bay was momentarily as bright as day. Even brighter. Anyway, here’s the ‘before, during and after’ of a fork lightning bolt. I can’t make out if it’s true that lightning starts at the bottom, but I think it may be sky and earth near-instantaneously.

An informative ‘basic primer’ about lightning can be found at the National Severe Storms Laboratory (part of NOAA) CLICK===>> NSSL/NOAA

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HURRICANE ISAAC LATEST UPDATES 30 AUGUST; IMAGES; TRACKING; MAPS; SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE


AUGUST 30

Noon GMT Some more pictures overnight – a selection of clips from a short HuffPo video

AUGUST 29

22.00 GMT Latest news: Hurricane Isaac has just been downgraded to a Tropical Storm (I realise that for those caught up in the heart of flooding, damage and widespread outages, this may be of little practical comfort – but it is perhaps some encouragement for those further north in the path of the storm).

18.00 GMT Some pictures are now coming out giving an idea of the ferocity of the storm. I’ve assembled a short gallery from Reuters, AP/Getty and similar news resources, which I will add to as and when…

DANGER SIGNWRECKED PIERHURRICANE CHANCERS… ARE THEY CRAZY?NEW ORLEANS POLICE ON PATROLUPROOTED TREEBUILDING DAMAGEROUGH SEASFALLEN TREEIS THIS WOMAN BEING SENSIBLE?

NOA SATELLITE IMAGE AUGUST 29th

Noon GMT The latest Wunderground tracker map for Hurricane Isaac shows the storm’s current position and its subsequent path, decreasing to tropical storm and then tropical depression as it sweeps northwards through Arkansas. The eastwards tendency, noted previously, is now pronounced with the storm predicted to turn towards Missouri and Kentucky.

09.00 GMT Having had many hundreds of hits for this storm post, including a great many from the southern coastal states of the US, I am posting some further information about Hurricane Isaac today, as the storm rages over New Orleans and more widely across the state. 

I have been wondering about the New Orleans flood defences that are constantly referred to in news reports, so firstly here is a clear map of the situation showing the reinforcement since Hurricane Katrina 

Here is a satellite video of Hurricane Isaac approaching the US coast, taken over two days. It vividly shows the development in the Gulf of Mexico from a “disorganised” tropical storm into a swirling, concentrated hurricane-force storm, with the eye becoming visible as it approaches the coast.

Finally (for now) this is the astonishing view from a space station, giving an idea of the storm’s extent

AUGUST 28

Posting suspended

AUGUST 27

TS ISAAC STORM TRACKING: LATEST UPDATE 23.00 GMT

GOES satellite image of TS Isaac 27 August Noon

TS ISAAC STORM TRACKING: LATEST UPDATE 09.00 GMT

Here is this morning’s (GMT) tracking map, with the storm in the Gulf of Mexico, still drifting westwards. Predicted landfall is now mainly on the Louisiana coast. The most significant change overnight is that the Cat 2 prediction has been downgraded, so that the max expected strength is Cat 1

The satellite picture shows Isaac thickly covering the Gulf of Mexico with dense cloud. The coloured markings to the right show the data recorded by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter flying on the eastern edge of the storm (where the winds are less)

Since this is a Bahamian-based blog (with close Florida connections) Isaac’s current position makes this a suitable moment to return to the main business of Rolling Harbour – the wildlife of Abaco. At exactly this time last year, Hurricane Irene was passing directly over Abaco, with the eye going right over HQ at the Delphi Club. The northward passage of Isaac has of course affected the weather there, but it has been spared the ferocity of 2011. We’ll be thinking of course about all those in the US in Isaac’s path when landfall is made shortly

AUGUST 26

I have concentrated for obvious reasons on the projected path of Isaac with special reference to its proximity to the Bahamas in general, and Abaco in particular. I may have given the impression that the continuing westward movement of the storm’s path has meant that Abaco would enjoy glorious dawns, wonderful sunny days and spectacular sunsets. Not so, of course – the side-effects of the storm continue laterally for large distances. It’s lunchtime on Abaco now, and a message from Brigitte Carey on Tilloo Cay says simply “Yes, its nasty here – lots of wind and rain!”

TS ISAAC STORM TRACKING: LATEST UPDATE 16.00 GMT

First, a recent satellite image of the developing Cat 1 hurricane, still expected to reach Cat 2 as it make landfall on the southern US coast, followed by a tracker map confirming the westward tendency of the predicted path Continue reading

ABACO CLOUDSCAPES – DRAMATIC SKIES IN SUN & RAIN


ABACO CLOUDSCAPES – DRAMATIC SKIES IN SUN & RAIN

A random mix of cloud formations, fiery dawns, and storm clouds mixed with sunlight taken in June (a couple of the later ones were actually taken at Compass Point, Nassau – same storms, though…)

PINE FOREST REGENERATION AFTER FIRES ON ABACO IN 2011


MARCH 2011 Fires swept through large areas of South Abaco, spreading rapidly and jumping the firebreak of the Highway in several places. At any one time, there were several ‘non-natural’ seats of fire. For 3 days the flames were uncomfortably close to the Delphi Club, halted only by the natural boundary between the flammable pine forest and the damper less combustible coppice. The smoke caused some amazing visual effects, especially at sunset. The first image was taken looking east from the Club verandah one evening as the fire got nearer

The vegetation alongside and between the drives was dense and lushly green before the fires. Here is a photo as fire began to take hold near the top of the drives towards the road, having jumped the Highway in the night…

As the fire rapidly spreads, this tall dead tree is actually flaming from the top

During the next couple of days, we took photographs along the drives of the apocalyptic scenes where there had so recently been impenetrable vegetation. Nearly a year later, indispensable beachcomber and photographer Kasia has taken some pictures of the drives as they are now. First, two ‘then and now’ views of the same scenes to illustrate the extent of forest regeneration

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011 The burnt-out forest between the drives

2012 A wander round the drive circuit

In some places the undergrowth has returned but trees have not recovered

Elsewhere, blackened stumps are visible in amongst the vigorous regrowth

          

ABACO & HURRICANE IRENE: A SCIENTIFIC RETROSPECTIVE


                    ABACO, BAHAMAS & HURRICANE IRENE                         A SCIENTIFIC RETROSPECTIVE

The contents of this post must be credited at the outset to the excellent website UNIVERSE TODAY and NASA where you can easily get Lost in Space for an eon or two. 

For 1o days at the end of August / in early September, the rh wildlife focus was supplanted by intensive weather blogging about Hurricane Irene from an Abaco perspective – the approach, direct journey north over the island, real-time reports and images of the storm and its aftermath, communication links and so forth. All from a safe distance of 4250 miles. On 26 August alone, this small blog – average daily hits 20 – had over 5000 hits…

3 months on, I have decided to revisit Hurricane Irene and the Bahamas because there is still a great deal of interest out there – I still get plenty of hits for the ‘storm posts’ – and much more available information. Some of these UNIVERSE TODAY / NASA images & videos are truly spectacular. The focus is on the 3 days August 24 – 26: before, during and after Abaco was struck by the storm

HURRICANE IRENE – ABACO / BAHAMAS SPACE PHOTOGRAPHS        (VIDEOS BELOW)

August 24, 2011 14.55 EDT Irene (taken by the GOES satellite) approaching the Bahamas. It now has a distinct eye and the clouds spiraling around the center are becoming more compact. The image also shows how large Irene has become, measuring several hundred kilometers across 

August 24, 2011 15:10 p.m. EDT View of Hurricane Irene from the International Space Station 230 miles above the Bahamas, moving northwest as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 120 mph, expected to strengthen to a Category 4 storm imminently

August 25 2011  8.00 EDT Hurricane Irene 65 miles east-southeast of Nassau, Bahamas. Irene’s top sustained winds remain at 115 mph, moving to the northwest at 13 mph

August 25 2011 16.30 EDT Hurricane Irene from the International Space Station, clearing the Bahamas and heading north towards the US coast

HURRICANE IRENE VIDEOS – BAHAMAS REGION

1. HOW DOES A HURRICANE FORM? Insight into the process can be gleaned by watching a rapid time lapse movie of the formation of Hurricane Irene as it sweeps northwards across the Caribbean region

2. HURRICANE IRENE FROM CARIBBEAN TO CANADA This astounding NASA video tracks the path of Hurricane Irene from August 23 to August 29, showing the formation in the Caribbean region, the path over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas and the US East Coast northwards to Canada 

3. HURRICANE IRENE IN 20 SECONDS (NOAA/ GOES) A psychedelic trip

CREDITS for images, videos and text (as adapted) go to the websites of UNIVERSE TODAY,  NASA and GOES PROJECT (NASA)

GREEN TURTLE CAY, ABACO 6 WEEKS AFTER HURRICANE IRENE


Michelle, a resident of Green Turtle Cay who contacted me just after Irene had hit, has emailed this update of the situation there. I’m still getting searches from people asking for news on GTC, so I’m posting this now – there may be some images to add in due course. I have a feeling that many people outside Abaco / Bahamas have no idea that the comms are still down over many areas 6 weeks later, and that the great repair and clean up continues

“Thankfully everyone is fine except for the continuous cleaning up and trying to restore the phone service.  I hear BATELNET has been sold by the gov. So there is now one hapless phone line repairman scampering around trying to get all the lines drained of water and serviceable… Irene came in on both sides and on high tide (as usual… remember Floyd?). It would have been good to have been able to receive news in the US while Irene was approaching the chain, but typical that unless it directly concerns [the US], you have to have other news sources. The patience of Bahamians is simply amazing!”

Although I have stood down from temporary hurricane-watch commentary, I will continue to post with news from individual areas for as long as I am getting online queries. All credit to WordPress for the detailed daily stats breakdowns…

 ©rh