HURRICANE SANDY: VIEWS FROM SPACE, STORM SURGES & THE THREAT TO NEW YORK…


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1. SCARY BEAUTY

HURRICANE SANDY: VIEWS FROM SPACE

LATEST NASA-GOES IMAGE 29 OCTOBER

 

Photo credits NASA-GOES, NOAA, BBC & honourable tips of the hat to sundry Sandy magpies

2. STORM SURGE

HURRICANE SANDY’S THREAT TO NEW YORK

US EAST COAST FLOOD PROJECTION MAP

“12 FEET” The biggest fear from this storm in the New York City area is the storm surge. Right now anything from 6 to 12 feet seems quite possible. The greatest storm surge in modern history at Battery Park was 10.5 feet in 1960. Irene’s storm surge was a little over four feet in New York. That’s why you’re seeing evacuations in New York (extract, Guardian UK)

sandy storm surge

Photo credit: Noaa.gov

FOR 9 MORE REASONS THAT MAKE SANDY AN EXCEPTIONAL STORM, CLICK HERE

HURRICANE SANDY AFTERMATH: ABACO PICTURES, NEWS FROM DELPHI CLUB, BAHAMAS & MANATEE UPDATE


DAMAGE FROM HURRICANE SANDY AT THE DELPHI CLUB, ABACO

The storm has passed from the Bahamas and the clear-up is underway – but further north communities are bracing themselves for the onslaught. The news today  from contacts, from Facebook and the web generally, is of thankfully little lasting damage, with power and comms restored in many places. There’s been plenty of flooding – eg Sandy Point – and tree / plant mayhem.

The Delphi Club was again, as with Irene last year, almost directly beneath the eye of the storm. Then, a couple of leaves were lost from the pineapple crown (above), a few fittings were smashed, and the gardens were unceremoniously rearranged. Peter Mantle, Delphi Club supremo, has posted his record of the last few days at the club – the approach of Sandy, the storm, and the aftermath. I am posting extracts below, to be read (chronologically) from the bottom entry to the top of the page. For those who haven’t experienced a storm of this violence, Peter’s account gives a vivid picture of the before, the during and the after…

Apologies for having posted about Sandy in detail with maps etc, and at the crucial time tailing off  while I was away and had only an iPhone™  and a sporadic connection…

STOP PRESS: AMERICAN OYSTERCATCHERS – BRAVE OR FOOLISH? 29 October

Peter Mantle has just sent me a ‘Sandy’ photo from the Delphi Club beach, showing a group of oystercatchers on the rocks at one end of Rolling Harbour. Storm detritus already festoons the rocks. Have the birds seen what’s about to hit them? Are they waterproof? 

STOP PRESS: BMMRO MANATEE UPDATE 29 October

The BMMRO has posted news from Sandy Point and for those who have been asking after manatee Georgie’s welfare, an update:

“Hi Everyone, everything is ok here at the research center! We are working on getting information on Georgie’s whereabouts and we will happily update everyone as soon as we hear anything. There’s still a bit of damage here in Abaco that is preventing travel but hopefully we will be able to get up to Georgie soon”.

STOP PRESS: SOME ABACO IMAGES 28 October

(credits to Timothy Roberts & Cindy James Pinder and their facebook posts)

SANDY TAKES BONEFISH; DARK HUMOUR ON DARK DAYS

OCTOBER 27th Among the many bits of minor damage caused by Hurricane Sandy was the destruction of our bonefish weather vane. This had been hand-made by the other Sandy, our general manager, and stood atop his lodgings. Snapped off, the copper creation was found nearby, bruised and dented, rather like ourselves.

Yet again, we have been very fortunate – staff and guests are all well. And most of the damage caused by the 100mph winds was minor. The storm had its moments, but the worst bits were at nighttime when many people were huddled safe in bed. Lots of bumps and bangs provided a spooky soundtrack, but it was more of a B movie than a full-blown Hollywood epic. That said, I hate to think what a really big Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane would be like.

We still have no mains electricity; thank God for the gennie. We have no phones or mobile connection, so we have little idea of what is going on elsewhere on the island. We hope for the best but fear not all will have escaped as lightly as we did. Some of the staff from Crossing Rocks are stranded here by flooding. But the wireless internet is back so all will soon be revealed.

Yet again, the gardens have been shredded. The banana trees have been snapped off mid-fruiting. My favorite banyan tree has broken in half again, having nearly bounced back from Irene. The big Bismark ferns are banjaxed, the bougainvillea is blasted leafless and the pool is a mess. But who cares. We are fine. Dunkirk spirit? Well, very black humour and spirits of a different kind have seen us through.

“I survived Sandy” T-shirts are now in preparation, but that’s a staff joke about their hyperactive and heroic boss…..

A BAD HAIR DAY…

OCTOBER 25th It is getting distinctly breezy here, with winds as bad as any Irish gale. But Hurricane Sandy, now upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane, is still some 18 hours away and currently features average winds of 105mph with higher gusts. It may get even worse, they say. So no fishing today. More guests have made it in. Bahamasair even ran a plane out of Nassau at first light this morning.

While we still have power and phones, the lines are buzzing and we are glued to the internet. It seems odd to see that Sandy is the lead news story on the BBC. Non-technical guests have adjourned to the library (where “A Perfect Storm” and “Winnie the Poo and the Blustery Day” are current favourites). The air of gloom is more attributable to the fact that Arsenal lost at home last night than to any fears for personal safety.

We may go quiet for a while.

NOTHING VERY FEMININE ABOUT THIS SANDY

OCTOBER 24th, noon Tropical storms are now given boys’ and girls’ names alternately; in the old days they were all girls. The one that currently threatens us is Sandy, a name that is more commonly applied to females in this part of the world. But there is nothing too feminine about this storm; as the forecast deteriorates and Sandy intensifies into a hurricane over Jamaica, we are becoming more and more concerned by its macho capabilities.

The National Hurricane Centre now predicts that Sandy will pass very close to Abaco – the predicted path having shifted overnight. As it now looks, the eye may pass just 25 miles from us, which would basically be a direct hit since damaging winds spread far out from the centre. We are going to have to keep a very close on on this little girl over the next 48 hours.

ALL EYES ON SANDY

OCTOBER 23rd No sooner has the Club reopened for the new season than a tropical storm appears on the horizon. And, in a twist of divine humour, it’s been christened after our general manager, Sandy.

Sandy (the mostly human version) is tracking Sandy (the swirling tempest) on an hourly basis. As it now stands, we are in the “cone” of the likely track of the storm over coming days. Currently south of Jamaica, TS Sandy is turning north and could yet morph into a hurricane. It’s expected to be over or near us by Friday night, with “average” winds of nearly 60mph and gusts of up to 90mph.

Hatches will therefore be battened, outdoor furniture put back indoors and supplies of grog reinforced. The lucky fishers in residence will have to take a breather, while the new chef, John, will receive a special form of baptism.

Tropical storms this late in the year are a great rarity. Somehow that is not very reassuring just now. But the forecast for the following week is rather better… 

Click image to visit the Delphi Club

HURRICANE SANDY: CUBA, BAHAMAS (TRACKING / PATH MAPS, LATEST ABACO UPDATES 25 OCTOBER)


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HURRICANE SANDY HEADING NORTH FOR BAHAMAS

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UPDATE 25 OCT 05.00 EDT HURRICANE SANDY CLEARING CUBA AS CAT. 2

Three hours passing has made a further difference, and not for the better. The landmass of Cuba, far from slowing the storm, has seen it intensify to Cat 2 – though so far that is predicted only as far as the south Bahamas… (Map 1). However the eastward drift into the Atlantic is still detectable – see Abaco detail, Map 2

UPDATE 25 OCT 02.00 EDT HURRICANE SANDY MAKES CUBA LANDFALL

As Sandy reaches the south coast of Cuba, two things have become clear overnight. First, the storm’s strength is now predicted at Cat 1 until it clears into the Atlantic north of the Bahamas – there will be no reduction to TS status in the south Bahamas (Map 1) Secondly, the news for Abaco is that a slight drift of the spine of the storm to the east can be detected (see Abaco Detail, Map 2). Yesterday, the eye was due to pass pretty much directly over MH and indeed (like Irene last year) the Delphi Club and Rolling Harbour. The shift may of course have no significant effect on the storm’s power, but if the eye’s path could continue to drift further east… Map 3 is the ‘hot’ map from 04.00 EDT today

FLIGHT ADVISORY As many on Abaco may already have found, there are flight disruptions from Nassau – I know of one person who couldn’t get to MH last night. So visitors following this blog and planning an imminent flight need to keep a careful eye on the situation, which given the path of the storm is likely to worsen.

I will not be in a position to post much in the way of updates between now and Monday – by which time Sandy should have cleared to the north of the Bahamas. The interactive tracker link at the top of this page is an excellent resource, especially as you can input a precise location. There is luckily a wealth of information out there on the internet – far more than for Irene last year. I notice too that Abaco residents are busy exchanging information on Facebook. While we are away, we’ll be thinking of all those in the path of the storm…

UPDATE 24 OCT 18.00 EDT HURRICANE SANDY CROSSING JAMAICA

Sandy is now a Cat 1 hurricane as it crosses Jamaica and heads for eastern Cuba. As the latest projections show, the prospects for the Bahamas have worsened: hurricane force is expected over central and northern islands (see map below for Abaco detail)

DETAILED TRACKING PATH FOR THE BAHAMAS 24 OCTOBER 18.00 EDT

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPDATE EXTRACT 24 OCT 16.00 EDT

THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF JAMAICA NEAR KINGSTON AT APPROXIMATELY 3.00 PM EDT / 19.00 UTC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH / 130 KM/H
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HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 
SANDY REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH... CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN JAMAICA... 

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA and [SPECIFIED] REGIONS OF CUBA 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI, THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN REEF, FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY, FLORIDA BAY

UPDATE 24 OCT 05.00 EDT TS SANDY MARCHES NORTH OVER JAMAICA

The latest maps below show TS / Hurricane Sandy at 5 am EDT today. Map 3 is the most useful for the current detailed Abaco prediction. Meanwhile, the US news indicates increasing concerns further north (much as happened with Irene last year)

TS SANDY POSITION & PROJECTED PATH 24 OCT 5.00 am EDTTS SANDY 5-DAY FORECAST 24 OCT 05.00 am EDT

TS SANDY DETAILED TRACKER 24 OCT 5.00 am EDT

TS SANDY POSITION & PROJECTED PATH 24 OCT 5.00 am EDT

CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR TS SANDY’S PATH UP THE US EAST COAST…

UPDATE 23 OCT 23.00 EDT TS Sandy is now approaching Jamaica.

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