As Hurricane Dorian sweeps directly and inexorably towards Abaco this weekend, from my safe distance of 4000 miles I wish all the very best to my friends, and to all the people and the precious island they inhabit.
Credits: Melissa Maura for her wonderful parrot photos; NASA / GOES
Hurricane Maria is currently passing over Puerto Rico as a Cat 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The big question for those to the north-west in general and (for this blog) Abaco in particular is, has the storm’s swerve to the east continued? And it’s now clear that the tendency has indeed been maintained. This means that today, more of the Bahamas Islands are now free for now from the cone of the predicted path. Here are the latest trackers for 11.00 am EDT today.
CURRENT POSITION
PREDICTED PATH
For the Abacos, the situation continues to improve for the moment at least. It’s certainly way too soon to be sure, but right now the outlook is good. And of course, Abaco may still experience a buffeting as the storm gradually progresses to the east.
LOOKING FORWARD
Here is an estimate – and only that – of the position of Maria in relation to Abaco on Saturday Sep 23 at noon, if the current course holds. It will be a close shave, for sure.
Credits: NOAAW / GOES; GOES East; NASA; Wunderground; Accuweather; NOAA / NHC; Windy.com STAY SAFE
In the life of a massive Cat. 5 hurricane, a lot can happen over 24 hours. One source reports ‘mind-boggling devastation’ on Dominica. Other islands on the storm’s path are braced for their own tragedies for their populations, many still reeling from the passage of Irma just 2 weeks ago. Here are the latest trackers for 11.00 am EDT today; and a calculated prediction for the position on Friday midnight.
CURRENT POSITION
PREDICTED PATH
The first thing to note is that (after a slight drop in wind speed) the storm has now intensified to become Cat. 5. In due course wind speeds are expected to reduce gradually, as shown, but of course it won’t necessarily turn out that way.
For the Abacos, however, the situation is notably better that this time yesterday, when the islands were squarely with the cone (though not right at the centre). However the distinct tendency of Maria to hook right / east that was evident yesterday has increased to the extent that Abaco – and indeed the northern Bahamas – is no longer within the cone. Much the same happened with Irma. Both sources below show a similar prediction. Again, it won’t necessarily turn out that way, but there’s at least some encouragement for a better outlook. And of course, this does not mean that Abaco won’t get some heavy weather as Maria moves on…
LOOKING AHEAD
I’ve used a realtime tracker and moved it forward along its timeline to midnight on Friday. I’ve centred the prediction on South Abaco (white circles). There’s plenty of scope for the course to alter in the meantime, but the model suggests the main storm will progress mainly to the east of the Bahamas – and if the veer continues, then the more so for the northern islands. But remember – the predictions are just that and no more…
Credits: NOAAW / GOES; GOES East; NASA; Wunderground; NOAA / NHC; Windy.com STAY SAFE
It never rains, but it pours. Sometimes doubly so. Just as those so cruelly affected by Irma are beginning to deal with the trail of terrible damage and destruction of the huge hurricane, so another storm, Maria, approaches along a similar path. This has now been upgraded from a tropical storm to a Cat. 1 hurricane, and is expected to continue to pick up intensity.
The trackers below were all updated early this morning. The good news is that Lee is forecast to break up and dissipate. So at the moment, that threat can probably be discounted. Maria, on the other hand, is one to watch with eagle eyes: already on course to reach the Leeward Islands today, then expected to intensify and probably reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a Cat 3 or 4 hurricane by Wednesday. After that, the storm looks set to pass Hispaniola and may hit the Turks and Caicos by Friday unless there’s a more significant hook to the right along the way. Beyond that, the Bahamas…
You may wonder why I put in 3 or 4 trackers of the many that are out there. It’s because they each present the information in a slightly different way. Some are easy to interpret; some are overloaded with info or otherwise confusing; some seem to me to be less accurate. The ones here are the ones I have used and found useful (= clear and reliable) since 2011, Hurricane Irene…
OPTIONAL MUSICAL DIGRESSION
I initially decided to omit my usual OMD, often added when a relevant song gets name-checked hereabouts. Then I rethought it. I’m not meaning to be frivolous nor to downplay the seriousness of extreme weather events on all those so badly affected. But on the other hand, there are a few things that can lighten the spirit, albeit briefly. A really well put together song with clever lyrics is one such. Get rid of the squall, Paul; Drop off the quay, Lee; Just sing ‘see ya, Maria’;
Credits: NOAAW / RAMMB / GOES; GOES East; Wunderground; NOAA / NHC; Paul Simon
It’s Saturday afternoon. Irma has (surprisingly?) weakened from Cat 5 overnight to Cat 3 right now – but is expected to regain Cat 4 strength as the core of the storm reaches the tip of Florida. The hurricane has now cleared the north coast of Cuba and is heading for Florida, where the first effects of this massive storm are already being felt.
For Abaco, the situation is better than feared and expected at one stage. I’ve seen several reports from the main island, including a video from Jason who is holding the fort at Delphi. He’s also sent a video sweep of Rolling Harbour taken from the verandah of the club a couple of hours ago.
Here are a couple of photos from Olivia Patterson Maura taken from her stretch of beach, taken earlier today. It hasn’t taken long for the sea to build up from rough to scary.
Below are some trackers and screenshots, mostly issued at 11.00 am today. The top one segues into a path prediction. I think it’s now certain that for Abaco, at least, the hurricane will be more of a violent sideswipe than a critical event. Not so elsewhere, for sure.
WHAT NEWS OF JOSÉ AND KATIA?
It looks as though JOSÉ will continue north-west, with an increasing hook to the east over open water. A complete change of course obviously remains a possibility, but for the moment it retains the status of ‘one to watch’. KATIA has dissipated, and although there are remnants of the storm
Credits: NASA (1, 5, 7); live tracker screenshot NotableMedia (2);Olivia Patterson Maura (3, 4); Wunderground (6); NOAA (8); Video Jason Pragnall. Stay safe.
It’s Saturday morning and Irma has strengthened to Cat 5 overnight as she barrels along the top of Cuba. I won’t waste words: you have better things to do than read blogs. Instead, here are some overnight tracking reports, each informative in its own way. Please note that these are a few hours old and already things will have progressed further (not least where Cat 4 is still shown). The amazing header image is from 9/7, and shows the awesome majesty of extreme weather seen from space…
Credits: NOAA with props to Randy Bresnik / AstroKomrade (1); live tracker screenshot NotableMedia (2); Wundergroung (3, 4); NASA & partners (5). Stay safe
It’s Friday afternoon. Irma is spinning her destructive progress through the Bahamas towards… well, right at the moment it seems to be Andros and then towards the Florida coast and northwards up the panhandle. Abaco is not currently shown in the direct firing line – but there’s no doubt that the passage of such a massive storm will mean plenty of dirty weather very soon now.
I have just taken a screenshot (above) of the live tracker I am using. Top right is a realtime satellite view of Irma’s current position. Bottom left is the predicted position later this weekend. The fiercest part of the storm will have passed over Andros and carried on northwest, a path further west of Abaco than recently forecast. We must hope so, remembering of course that one location’s dodged bullet will inevitably be another’s bullseye.
In the tracker realtime shot above, it’s impossible to ignore the lurking menace of Hurricane Jose – recently graded Cat 4 – to the east. Here’s the latest Jose tracker I can find for today. Right now (but who knows for how long) this system looks as though it may hook north and expend its savage energy in the open ocean.
And here is the latest Irma tracker, as I write. It looks as if the storm may dissipate after it has made landfall at the southern tip of Florida, but it will clearly be very unpleasant down there I’m afraid.
There’s been some interest in the International Space Station ISS images I posted yesterday. The serenity of the view of a hurricane topside is so at odds with the ferocity of the weather beneath and the destruction being wrought on the ground. And they work on the imagination: suppose you were in that capsule, moving with eerie calmness through the sky, looking at the swirling mass of white cloud far below…?
Today’s screenshots were taken during yesterday’s ISS pass over Irma, using external cameras. The one below is the last in the sequence, an upside-down view looking rather like some pale alien spaceship hanging above a dark earth.
I’ll be watching events during the weekend. By the time I next write, the storm will have passed the Bahamas, and the assessments will have begun. From a safe distance of 4250 miles, I will be thinking of those who are already counting the cost; those currently enduring the brutality; and those still awaiting Irma’s malice.
THE EVIL EYE
Credits: all images ISS / NASA; live tracker from NotableMedia; tracker images for Jose & Irma from Wunderground
Hurricane Matthew, NASA aerial view
As Hurricane Matthew sweeps northwards, with Abaco in its path for the hit tomorrow, it’s an opportunity to take a look at the power and might of extreme weather, and maybe to recalibrate the word ‘awesome’ from its current diluted usage. The images used all relate to the state of play in the last 24 hours.
Satellite view at 14.00 EDT
The concept of ‘awe’, historically and Biblically, comprised emotions such as wonderment, astonishment, terror and dread. Biblical translations use ‘awe’ and ‘awesome’ almost exclusively to refer to God or to His Works. In many Biblical instances of people being awed, they not only experience extremes of emotion but also exhibit palpable signs of fear – shaking, cowering, falling down, prostrating themselves.
Aerial view of Hurricane Matthew from the International Space Station, October 4
The perfect example of the ‘proper’ meaning of awesome can be found in Genesis: ‘He (Jacob) was afraid and said, “How awesome is this place! This is none other than the house of God, and this is the gate of heaven.”‘ Some translations use the word ‘dreadful’ in place of ‘awesome’ for this passage – in its old meaning of ‘full of dread’, not its watered down modern meaning as in ‘dreadful headache’ or ‘dreadful nuisance’ (the same dilution that has happened to ‘terrible’).
WHAT KIND OF EMOTION IS AWE?
In 1980 a man called Dr Robert Plutchik designed a ‘diagram of emotions’ in a floral wheel format. This device visualised eight basic emotions, with eight derivative emotions each composed of two basic ones. Awe is at 4.00 o’clock, showing the extreme of the Biblical meaning as a mixture of terror and amazement (think of the reaction of the shepherds while watching of their flocks, when unexpectedly interrupted by an angel…). There’s no place in the wheel for ‘awesome’ to mean ‘I really like that photo you took’. Or, ‘your soup is delicious’. Or, ‘I am so pleased to have made a plan to meet you at Pete’s Pub’.
Language is a living thing, and the hyperbolic application of powerful words to mundane emotions or objects is widespread and unsurprising. But a Cat. 4 hurricane really is awesome stricto sensu: it is both an amazing ‘extreme weather event’, and a terrifying one, as the header image and the many images of Matthew’s progress posted online amply illustrate. The recent practice of giving hurricanes comfortable names does nothing to dispel their power or the awe they inspire. On present tracking, Matthew will reach Abaco some time tomorrow. From a safe distance, I wish everyone on Abaco and elsewhere in the target zone all the very best and a safe passage through the storm.
HOW ARE HURRICANES CATEGORISED?
FROM ASTOUNDING TO BADASS: AWESOME SYNONYMS ANCIENT & MODERN
Astounding, breathtaking, amazing, stunning, astonishing, awe-inspiring, stupendous, staggering, extraordinary, incredible, unbelievable, magnificent, wonderful, spectacular, remarkable, phenomenal, prodigious, miraculous, sublime, formidable, imposing, impressive, mind-boggling, mind-blowing, out of this world, supercalifragilisticexpialidocious, amazeballs, badass
Credits: Nasa / Goes, NASA / ISS, Wunderground, Craig Setzer
ROLLING HARBOUR ABACO 
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