HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE (2): ABACO, BAHAMAS 9/9

September 9, 2017 by Rolling Harbour

HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE (2): ABACO, BAHAMAS 9/9

It’s Saturday afternoon. Irma has (surprisingly?) weakened from Cat 5 overnight to Cat 3 right now – but is expected to regain Cat 4 strength as the core of the storm reaches the tip of Florida. The hurricane has now cleared the north coast of Cuba and is heading for Florida, where the first effects of this massive storm are already being felt.

For Abaco, the situation is better than feared and expected at one stage. I’ve seen several reports from the main island, including a video from Jason who is holding the fort at Delphi. He’s also sent a video sweep of Rolling Harbour taken from the verandah of the club a couple of hours ago.

Here are a couple of photos from Olivia Patterson Maura taken from her stretch of beach, taken earlier today. It hasn’t taken long for the sea to build up from rough to scary.

Below are some trackers and screenshots, mostly issued at 11.00 am today. The top one segues into a path prediction. I think it’s now certain that for Abaco, at least, the hurricane will be more of a violent sideswipe than a critical event. Not so elsewhere, for sure.

WHAT NEWS OF JOSÉ AND KATIA?

It looks as though JOSÉ will continue north-west, with an increasing hook to the east over open water. A complete change of course obviously remains a possibility, but for the moment it retains the status of ‘one to watch’. KATIA has dissipated, and although there are remnants of the storm

Credits: NASA (1, 5, 7); live tracker screenshot NotableMedia (2);Olivia Patterson Maura (3, 4); Wunderground (6); NOAA (8); Video Jason Pragnall. Stay safe.

HURRICANE MATTHEW & THE TRUE MEANING OF “AWESOME”

October 5, 2016 by Rolling Harbour

Hurricane Matthew, NASA aerial view

HURRICANE MATTHEW & THE TRUE MEANING OF “AWESOME”

As Hurricane Matthew sweeps northwards, with Abaco in its path for the hit tomorrow, it’s an opportunity to take a look at the power and might of extreme weather, and maybe to recalibrate the word ‘awesome’ from its current diluted usage. The images used all relate to the state of play in the last 24 hours.

Satellite view at 14.00 EDT

The concept of ‘awe’, historically and Biblically, comprised emotions such as wonderment, astonishment, terror and dread. Biblical translations use ‘awe’ and ‘awesome’ almost exclusively to refer to God or to His Works. In many Biblical instances of people being awed, they not only experience extremes of emotion but also exhibit palpable signs of fear – shaking, cowering, falling down, prostrating themselves.

Aerial view of Hurricane Matthew from the International Space Station, October 4

The perfect example of the ‘proper’ meaning of awesome can be found in Genesis: ‘He (Jacob) was afraid and said, “How awesome is this place! This is none other than the house of God, and this is the gate of heaven.”‘ Some translations use the word ‘dreadful’ in place of ‘awesome’ for this passage – in its old meaning of ‘full of dread’, not its watered down modern meaning as in ‘dreadful headache’ or ‘dreadful nuisance’ (the same dilution that has happened to ‘terrible’).

WHAT KIND OF EMOTION IS AWE?

In 1980 a man called Dr Robert Plutchik designed a ‘diagram of emotions’ in a floral wheel format. This device visualised eight basic emotions, with eight derivative emotions each composed of two basic ones. Awe is at 4.00 o’clock, showing the extreme of the Biblical meaning as a mixture of terror and amazement (think of the reaction of the shepherds while watching of their flocks, when unexpectedly interrupted by an angel…). There’s no place in the wheel for ‘awesome’ to mean ‘I really like that photo you took’. Or, ‘your soup is delicious’. Or, ‘I am so pleased to have made a plan to meet you at Pete’s Pub’.

Language is a living thing, and the hyperbolic application of powerful words to mundane emotions or objects is widespread and unsurprising. But a Cat. 4 hurricane really is awesome stricto sensu: it is both an amazing ‘extreme weather event’, and a terrifying one, as the header image and the many images of Matthew’s progress posted online amply illustrate. The recent practice of giving hurricanes comfortable names does nothing to dispel their power or the awe they inspire. On present tracking, Matthew will reach Abaco some time tomorrow. From a safe distance, I wish everyone on Abaco and elsewhere in the target zone all the very best and a safe passage through the storm.

HOW ARE HURRICANES CATEGORISED?

FROM ASTOUNDING TO BADASS: AWESOME SYNONYMS ANCIENT & MODERN

Astounding, breathtaking, amazing, stunning, astonishing, awe-inspiring, stupendous, staggering, extraordinary, incredible, unbelievable, magnificent, wonderful, spectacular, remarkable, phenomenal, prodigious, miraculous, sublime, formidable, imposing, impressive, mind-boggling, mind-blowing, out of this world, supercalifragilisticexpialidocious, amazeballs, badass

Credits: Nasa / Goes, NASA / ISS, Wunderground, Craig Setzer

ABACO DAWN: WHERE NATURE MEETS ART…

March 23, 2015 by Rolling Harbour

DELPHI DAWN: WHERE NATURE MEETS ART…

There’s a moment when certain photos suddenly look as if they are paintings. This may be especially true of skyscapes or seascapes – or both together. Here are some recent daybreak views from Abaco which could as easily have been painted from a bright palette. And in case you think the effects have been produced or enhanced by some photoshop-style jiggery-pokery, all these images are exactly as I downloaded them, and no ‘special effect’ settings were used to take them. I just pointed and shot… J.M.W.Turner, what could you have done with a Pentax?

HURRICANE UPDATE: GONZALO TRACKS AWAY FROM ABACO, BAHAMAS

October 14, 2014 by Rolling Harbour

Hurricane Irene 2011 – the eye right on course for central Abaco

HURRICANE UPDATE: GONZALO TRACKS AWAY FROM ABACO, BAHAMAS

STOP PRESS – UPDATE Following yesterday’s post (below), the hurricane’s tendency to track further away from the Bahamas is confirmed by later models, for examples this one from Wunderground. So I think we are officially ‘off-risk’. But Bermuda is definitely not… Anyway, read on a bit and you will find out how hurricanes get their names!

Yesterday I posted on my FB page an NOAA hurricane tracking map update for Hurricane Gonzalo, currently rated Cat. 2 on the SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. It is making its way north through the Caribbean right now, and at one stage the storm cone looked on a possible course for the Bahamas. Abaco has been spared a major cyclone for a couple of years. However memories are very recent of Hurricane Irene (2011) which passed directly over Abaco as a Cat. 3 storm; and Hurricane Sandy (2012) that passed marginally to the east with (at that stage) an intensity of a Cat. 1 before going on to wreak havoc further north. During those ‘extreme weather events’ I posted regularly about them, with tracking maps and photos. At the time of Irene there was remarkable little information around online and I got a huge number of hits – 5000+ in a day, 15,000+ in a week. I also replied to lots of inquiries from the Bahamas, US and Canada, both general (“How are things at Cherokee?”) to very specific (“Do you happen to know if my boat ‘Blowdakidzinheritanz’ moored in Little Harbour is Okay?”).

Hurricane Sandy over Abaco from the International Space Station

I have been surprised at the response the map generated by way of ‘Likes’ and comments expressing relief… So from my current safe distance of precisely 4250.00 miles from Marsh Harbour, I am posting an update with helpful maps and a bit of general hurricane info. The agencies all agree that Gonzalo will hook east as it progresses northwards. The Bahamas outlook is promising, though for example Bermuda looks to be at risk. There’s more on hurricanes on the page ABACO WEATHER. I always think that Wunderground produce the clearest maps for general purposes, though there’s a great deal more information to be had from the NOAA site, to which there’s a direct link in the Sidebar (I’ve moved it to near the top for the time being).

CURRENT TRACKING FORECASTS OCT 14 2014

WUNDERGROUND 3-DAY TRACKING & WIND MAP

NOAA TRACKERS & FORECASTS

ACCUWEATHER SATELLITE VIEW & TRACKER

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE

Here is a reminder of how tropical storms and hurricanes are measured for intensity, as decreed by the S-SS, followed by the National Hurricane Center’s explanation of the gradations of relative intensities.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based on a hurricane’s sustained wind speed. This scale estimates potential property damage. Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are considered major hurricanes because of their potential for significant loss of life and damage. Category 1 and 2 storms are still dangerous, however, and require preventative measures. In the western North Pacific, the term “super typhoon” is used for tropical cyclones with sustained winds exceeding 150 mph.

Category	Sustained Winds	Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds
1	74-95 mph 64-82 kt 119-153 km/h	Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
2	96-110 mph 83-95 kt 154-177 km/h	Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage:Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
3 (major)	111-129 mph 96-112 kt 178-208 km/h	Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
4 (major)	130-156 mph 113-136 kt 209-251 km/h	Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
5 (major)	157 mph or higher 137 kt or higher 252 km/h or higher	Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

HOW DO HURRICANES GET THEIR NAMES?

Check out the page ABACO WEATHER

BACKTRACKING

ABACO: COLOURFUL EVEN DURING TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR

July 3, 2014 by Rolling Harbour

Storm Tracker 13

ABACO: COLOURFUL EVEN DURING TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR

As Tropical Storm Arthur blows northwards increasing in strength, Abaco has begun to get its sunshine back. TS Arthur, then defined as a Tropical Depression, hung around over the Northern Bahamas for four days or so before finally clearing. In the past I wrote daily posts about Hurricane Irene and Hurricane Sandy at a time when information was surprisingly hard to come by. Now everyone is on Facebook and it’s easy to post (or find) cyclone reports, maps, path projections and so on. I’m always struck by the contrast between the bleak, dark-clouded snaps that people put up on their FB pages and the cheerfully coloured weather maps that mark the passage of the storm. Here are a few for Tropical Depression Arthur when over Abaco and moving north, taken from the most useful mainstream sites. My favourite is the National Hurricane Center NOAA where the graphic information is presented in a number of formats. However MIKE’S WEATHER PAGE is a good first resort for information – ‘Like’ it and you’ll get the reports you need. For a plethora of graphics on every hurricane aspect, move on to his website http://www.spaghettimodels.com

Props to Man-o-War Museum which posted the image above on FB. The purple pin is Abaco

There’s nothing like a GIF to show which way the wind is blowing…

Whenever there’s a bad storm or a hurricane, it’s worth visiting the NASA ISS site for dramatic images from the Space Station. The following link will take you to a dramatic photo of Hurricane Irene in 2011 HERE There’s a search facility on the site. This is a fine image of TS Arthur, illustrating the characteristic swirl pattern of a tropical storm.

Compare the bright graphics above with the reality for those under the massed clouds in strong wind and scything rain… Cheers for these vividly gloomy images to Julias Sawyer, Cindy James Pinder and Albury’s Ferries (who post almost daily images of Abaco weather as the ‘Donnies’ ply the seas between the main island and the outlying Cays with their passengers and cargo…)

I can’t resist adding an ‘Abaco summer weather’ photograph taken by Amanda Diedrick on Green Turtle Cay. There was a passing bout of bad weather was a couple of weeks back, and Amanda managed to take this extraordinary photo of a bolt of forked lightning apparently burning straight through a small cloud. It’s difficult to get a good lightning shot without special cameras, compartic lenses, Fitzallan filters, aperture reticulators and the like. She did it!*

The start of the summer season is a good time to roll out the Saffir-Simpson Scale, from which you will see how the various intensities of storm are graded. It’s colourful as well.