HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE & ISS VIEWS: ABACO, BAHAMAS


HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE: ABACO, BAHAMAS

It’s Friday afternoon. Irma is spinning her destructive progress through the Bahamas towards… well, right at the moment it seems to be Andros and then towards the Florida coast and northwards up the panhandle. Abaco is not currently shown in the direct firing line – but there’s no doubt that the passage of such a massive storm will mean plenty of dirty weather very soon now. 

I have just taken a screenshot (above) of the live tracker I am using. Top right is a realtime satellite view of Irma’s current position. Bottom left is the predicted position later this weekend. The fiercest part of the storm will have passed over Andros and carried on northwest, a path further west of Abaco than recently forecast. We must hope so, remembering of course that one location’s dodged bullet will inevitably be another’s bullseye.

In the tracker realtime shot above, it’s impossible to ignore the lurking menace of Hurricane Jose – recently graded Cat 4 – to the east. Here’s the latest Jose tracker I can find for today. Right now (but who knows for how long) this system looks as though it may hook north and expend its savage energy in the open ocean.

And here is the latest Irma tracker, as I write. It looks as if the storm may dissipate after it has made landfall at the southern tip of Florida, but it will clearly be very unpleasant down there I’m afraid.

There’s been some interest in the International Space Station ISS images I posted yesterday. The serenity of the view of a hurricane topside is so at odds with the ferocity of the weather beneath and the destruction being wrought on the ground. And they work on the imagination: suppose you were in that capsule, moving with eerie calmness through the sky, looking at the swirling mass of white cloud far below…?

Today’s screenshots were taken during yesterday’s ISS pass over Irma, using external cameras. The one below is the last in the sequence, an upside-down view looking rather like some pale alien spaceship hanging above a dark earth.

I’ll be watching events during the weekend. By the time I next write, the storm will have passed the Bahamas, and the assessments will have begun. From a safe distance of 4250 miles, I will be thinking of those who are already counting the cost; those currently enduring the brutality; and those still awaiting Irma’s malice.

THE EVIL EYE

Credits: all images ISS / NASA; live tracker from NotableMedia; tracker images for Jose & Irma from Wunderground

HURRICANE IRMA: THE STRANGE BEAUTY UNLEASHING CRUEL SAVAGERY


HURRICANE IRMA: THE STRANGE BEAUTY UNLEASHING CRUEL SAVAGERY

Hurricane Irma is carving her destructive path through the northern Caribbean. As the storm moves relentlessly on towards the Bahamas, speculation has already started whether Irma may be the first hurricane to be classified as a Cat 6 – or the last huge Cat 5 before the new category is introduced.

The standard SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE only goes up to 5. But for exceptional storms with wind speeds exceeding a suggested 180 mph (and these are increasing worldwide), it is becoming clear that re-categorisation is called for. As with luxury hotels, 5 stars has become inadequate to describe the magnitude**.

There’s nothing to be gained from showing images of the havoc and misery already caused by Irma. TV media, print media and social media are covering that base more than adequately. So instead let’s look at the other side of the hurricane as the serene white cloud mass whirls inexorably westwards – the view from the International Space Station ISS.

THE EVIL EYE

The NASA site is a treasure trove of wonderful images, many of which can be downloaded. Here are a few of these, taken over the last 48 hours. There’s an extraordinary video of an ISS pass over Irma yesterday, and I have taken a few screenshots from it for those who may not have the time right now to watch the footage.

ISS PASSES OVER HURRICANE IRMA 9/6/2017 (10 mins)

Finally, here is a link to a live tracker that I have already posted on my FB page. This amazing resource shows vital information in 3 ways: a realtime view of Irma’s current position; the future tracking over the next few days; and realtime notes. As far as I can make out, the main image modelling means that the predicted path changes seamlessly as the storm progresses. It may be the most useful tool for Abaco / Bahamas predictions right now, because you won’t need to keep checking NOAA, Wunderground, Accuweather and the rest to look at the ‘cone’ movements. Just tune in to this. If you do, I’d be interested to hear how helpful people think it is. I’m testing it too and comparing it with other sources.

**Frankly I’d be as likely to want to be in a 6-star hotel as in a Cat 6 storm. Which is to say, not at all

NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite flew over Irma at 1:54 a.m. AST Sept. 5, 2017, when it was still a Category 4 hurricane. Night-time images showed a well-defined eye with convection most of the way around it. Both the infrared and Day-Night Band both show tropospheric gravity waves. Think of them the waves generated if you dropped a rock into a pond, but in this case it is convection punching upward.
Credits: NASA/NOAA/UWM/CIMSS/William Straka III

Credits: main photos & space station footage: ISS / NASA; Live tracker from NotableMedia; collage NASA / NOAA & as credited

WORLD SHOREBIRDS DAY, PIPING PLOVERS & IRMA


Piping Plover (Danny Sauvageau)

WORLD SHOREBIRDS DAY, PIPING PLOVERS & IRMA

Sept 6 2017. World Shorebirds Day dawns, even as the huge Cat 5 Hurricane Irma makes landfall over the small islands of the eastern Caribbean. Irma’s path has been relentlessly westwards, for sure – but the path has been unnervingly variable. The tracking reports showed Abaco successively as being in line for a direct hit; then taking a sideswipe from the south; then completely clear of the cone prediction; then within the northern edge… and today, a right hook to the east suggests again that Abaco will take a hit from irma (though as a predicted Cat 4 or maybe 3).

Hurricane Irma Tracking Path Sept 6th 2017 Wunderground

Far down the list of concerns in such a situation come shorebirds. Most if not all the islands that Irma will affect have wonderful shorebirds, both permanent and migratory. On Abaco my personal preoccupation is for the tiny Piping Plovers and our citizen scientist annual 6-month WATCH. Generally, the birds manage to find some cover at the back of the beaches to hunker down until the worst is past. But generally the beach populations are rather different after the storm, as birds scatter and take cover. 

Well, except this little guy who decided to take a windy bath on the Long Dock at Cherokee during Hurricane Matthew as it passed over Abaco last October (and props to Keith Kemp for braving the elements to get this shot!)

Birds are resilient and resourceful. Humans too. But nature unleashed with full force is a terrifying prospect. From a safe distance of 4250 miles from Marsh Harbour, thoughts and best wishes from Rolling Harbour will be with all those in the path of Irma over the next few days. 

Piping plovers on the Delphi Beach, at a more peaceful timePiping Plover, Delphi, Abaco (Keith Salvesen)

Photos: Danny Sauvageau, Keith Kemp, Keith Salvesen / Rolling Harbour; Graphic by Wunderground

HURRICANE MATTHEW & THE TRUE MEANING OF “AWESOME”


hurricane-matthew-nasa

Hurricane Matthew, NASA aerial view

HURRICANE MATTHEW & THE TRUE MEANING OF “AWESOME”

As Hurricane Matthew sweeps northwards, with Abaco in its path for the hit tomorrow, it’s an opportunity to take a look at the power and might of extreme weather, and maybe to recalibrate the word ‘awesome’ from its current diluted usage. The images used all relate to the state of play in the last 24 hours.

Hurricane Matthew_satellite view (NASA)

Satellite view at 14.00 EDThurricane-matthew-satellite-clip-wunderground

The concept of ‘awe’, historically and Biblically, comprised emotions such as wonderment, astonishment, terror and dread. Biblical translations use ‘awe’ and ‘awesome’ almost exclusively to refer to God or to His Works. In many Biblical instances of people being awed, they not only experience extremes of emotion but also exhibit palpable signs of fear – shaking, cowering, falling down, prostrating themselves.

Aerial view of Hurricane Matthew from the International Space Station, October 4hurricane-matthew- aerial view (ISS/ NASA)

The perfect example of the ‘proper’ meaning of awesome can be found in Genesis: ‘He (Jacob) was afraid and said, “How awesome is this place! This is none other than the house of God, and this is the gate of heaven.”‘ Some translations use the word ‘dreadful’ in place of ‘awesome’ for this passage – in its old meaning of ‘full of dread’, not its watered down modern meaning as in ‘dreadful headache’ or ‘dreadful nuisance’ (the same dilution that has happened to ‘terrible’).

Hurricane Matthew Tracking Path (Wunderground)

WHAT KIND OF EMOTION IS AWE?

In 1980 a man called Dr Robert Plutchik designed a ‘diagram of emotions’ in a floral wheel format. This device visualised eight basic emotions, with eight derivative emotions each composed of two basic ones. Awe is at 4.00 o’clock, showing the extreme of the Biblical meaning as a mixture of terror and amazement (think of the reaction of the shepherds while watching of their flocks, when unexpectedly interrupted by an angel…). There’s no place in the wheel for ‘awesome’ to mean ‘I really like that photo you took’. Or, ‘your soup is delicious’. Or, ‘I am so pleased to have made a plan to meet you at Pete’s Pub’.
plutchik-wheel-svg

Language is a living thing, and the hyperbolic application of powerful words to mundane emotions or objects is widespread and unsurprising. But a Cat. 4 hurricane really is awesome stricto sensu: it is both an amazing ‘extreme weather event’, and a terrifying one, as the header image and the many images of Matthew’s progress posted online amply  illustrate. The recent practice of  giving hurricanes comfortable names does nothing to dispel their power or the awe they inspire.  On present tracking, Matthew will reach Abaco some time tomorrow. From a safe distance, I wish everyone on Abaco and elsewhere in the target zone all the very best and a safe passage through the storm.

hurricane-matthew-wunderground-clip

HOW ARE HURRICANES CATEGORISED?

Credit: 'Watts Up With That" - Click image for Hurricane Irene page of this excellent weather & climate site

 FROM ASTOUNDING TO BADASS: AWESOME SYNONYMS ANCIENT & MODERN

Astounding, breathtaking, amazing, stunning, astonishing, awe-inspiring, stupendous, staggering, extraordinary, incredible, unbelievable, magnificent, wonderful, spectacular, remarkable, phenomenal, prodigious, miraculous, sublime, formidable, imposing, impressive, mind-boggling, mind-blowing, out of this world, supercalifragilisticexpialidocious, amazeballs, badass

hurricane-matthew-tracking-clip-craig-setzer-jpg-copy

Credits: Nasa / Goes, NASA / ISS, Wunderground, Craig Setzer

SEEING THE BACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN: LATEST UPDATE OCT 3


Hurricane Joaquin at dawn from International Space Station, Oct 2 (Scott Kelly / ISS / NASA)

Hurricane Joaquin at dawn from International Space Station, Oct 2 (Scott Kelly / ISS / NASA)

SEEING THE BACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN: LATEST UPDATE OCT 3

Since my post yesterday HERE confirming evidence that Joaquin was hooking out into the Atlantic and away from northern Bahamas, the storm has picked up speed as it now heads for Bermuda. It is also on a direct route to Ireland and the UK, but is already weakening. With the storm now reduced to a Cat. 3, a continuing lessening of intensity is predicted.

In this second – and, I hope, final – post of the hurricane season, the images below show the current state of play early today. I’ll repeat the weather watch links at the end.

Joaquin clears the Bahamas & heads out into the Atlantic towards Bermuda as a Cat. 3 stormHurricane Joaquin Storm path October 3

Forecast eye-path early on Oct 3Hurricane Joaquin Storm path October 3

The remarkable storm path, hooking round over Central Bahamas & going back on itseslfHurricane Joaquin Storm path October 3

The strange beauty of a hurricane captured from spaceHurricane Joaquin over central Bahamas, seen from space

USEFUL DIRECT LINKS FOR HURRICANE INFORMATION

NOAA / NHC

WUNDERGROUND

WEATHER CHANNEL

ACCUWEATHER

NASA

and for local Bahamas news

TRIBUNE 242

Credit: 'Watts Up With That

Sources: NASA, NOAA, ISS / Scott Kelly, Wunderground, Accuweather

HURRICANE JOAQUIN: LATEST TRACKING UPDATE OCTOBER 2


Hurricane Joaquin Oct 2nd 6

HURRICANE JOAQUIN: LATEST TRACKING UPDATE OCTOBER 2

There’s a great deal of information about Hurricane Joaquin flying around the internet right now, which is completely understandable. How quickly things have progressed since Irene in 2011 in the very early days of this blog, when there was little public information and an almost complete absence of information on social media. I posted daily (or more) updates as the hurricane swept up over the Bahamas. In 4 days, and despite communications being largely blanked, I had over 15,000 hits and a mass of questions along the lines ‘Any news of Treasure Cay’; ‘Can you find out how my boat is – Saucy Sue in Little Harbour’; and ‘Hi I’m on Elbow Cay, can you tell my mom in Maine that I’m ok’ [+ email]…

Here is the position today, at 05.00 EDT, according to the various resources that people turn to. Central Bahamas has taken – is taking – a battering and we have the people there very much in mind. But for the northern Bahamas the picture has improved, with the veer of Joaquin’s predicted path to the northeast increasing overnight. This does not mean an absence of strong winds and big waves – these are already being felt. But the most serious area of this Cat 4 hurricane is not expected to pass over Abaco – the direct concern of most readers of this blog. How different from Irene which wrought its havoc right over the island; and Sandy, which took much the same route.

USEFUL DIRECT LINKS FOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN INFORMATION

NOAA / NHC

WUNDERGROUND

WEATHER CHANNEL

ACCUWEATHER

NASA

and for local Bahamas news

TRIBUNE 242

Anyway, all the best to everyone affected by this fierce storm directly or indirectly, and good luck.

Credit: 'Watts Up With That

Hurricane Joaquin Oct 2nd 1Hurricane Joaquin Oct 2nd 3Hurricane Joaquin Oct 2nd 4Hurricane Joaquin Oct 2nd 7Hurricane Joaquin Oct 2nd 5Hurricane Joaquin Oct 2nd 2Sources: NASA, NOAA, Wunderground, Weather Channel, NYT, Accuweather

HOLE-IN-THE-WALL, ABACO: A UNIQUE PERSPECTIVE (1) THE PAST


Map of Abaco (part) - van Keulen 1728

HOLE-IN-THE-WALL, ABACO: A UNIQUE PERSPECTIVE (1) THE PAST

I’ve posted several times about the desolate, unpopulated area on the southern tip of Abaco known as Hole-in-the-Wall. It’s a place of history and mystery – indeed arguably the most historically, geographically and nautically important location on the entire island. The material in this post has to an extent been combined from earlier posts a couple of years back, since when a great many more people have been showing an interest in the wildlife and history of Abaco (thanks!) and may be new to the history and significance of HITW…

Although Abaco is identifiably – though not geographically reliably – mapped from as early as 1550 (only 58 years post-Columbus), the earliest map of Abaco showing any actual named place is the van Keulen map of 1728 in the header picture. The importance of HITW (‘Hole Rok’ marked on the east side) is clear. Indeed it is the only settlement shown. Thereafter, the place is mapped variously as Hole-in-the-Rock, Trou dans la Roche and Hole-in-the-Wall, before finally settling on the last name. HITW was clearly a significant nautical landmark from at least the c16. You can read more on this topic at HITW – A SHORT HISTORY IN MAPS

Incidentally, note the early spellings including of the word ‘Cay’ as ‘Kee’ in the bottom right corner – doubtless an explanation for the pronunciation today, when one might otherwise rhyme the word with ‘Bay’.

hole-in-the-wall-print-1803

The print above, dated 1803, is the earliest depiction of HITW that I have traced. For now, note the familiar ‘Hole’ between the two ships; and the outcrop to the right showing that another, larger ‘Hole’ had, by the early c19, collapsed. Remains of the outcrop, now badly eroded, can still be seen. Read more about pictures of HITW in SHIPS, MAPS & HITW , or in HOLE TO GAP, including a more recent print by Winslow Homer (below) which I contend is the proof that his famous painting ‘Glass Window’ in the Brooklyn Museum is of Abaco and not (as claimed elsewhere) the famous Glass Window on Eleuthera. Of which more another time…

Hole-in-the-Wall Picture

The sad fact is that although the name lives on and probably always will, in October 2012 Hurricane Sandy smashed the Hole in the Wall to smithereens, leaving what one can best describe as GAP IN THE WALL.

Here is the position of the Hole, shown before Sandy struck. Note the outcrop at the tip (bottom right corner), as seen in the old print above hole-in-the-wall-rock-abaco-location

One of very few photos taken from the sea that I have come across. There’ll be more, and much closer, in the next post Hole-in-the-Wall distance shot

The view from the lighthouse down to the ‘Land’s End’ promontory (RH)Hole-in-the-Wall Lighthouse Abaco (Keith Salvesen)

An aerial view of ‘Land’s End’ (with thanks to marinas.com for free use permission)Hole-in-the-Wall Lighthouse, Abaco annotated

The Hole, very shortly before Hurricane Sandy blasted away the bridge – the perfect place for a picnic…Hole-in-the-Wall Abaco ©Jessica Arrington

Or, as the storm approaches, maybe not…. Jack Bowers took this wonderful (and dangerous to acquire) sea-level shot – possibly the last photo ever of the intact arch427937_4820129308023_1041770732_n

Photos of the ‘Ex-Hole Now Gap’ taken within a very few days of the storm. Note the pale fresh stone HOLE-IN-THE-WALL ABACO post Sandy 1 Luc LavalleeHOLE-IN-THE-WALL ABACO post Sandy 2 Luc LavalleeHOLE-IN-THE-WALL ABACO post Sandy 3 Tara Lavallee

This post covers the history of Hole-in-the-Wall over the last 400 years or so, with links to earlier posts from a couple of years back. Then there’s a bit of a gap, I’m afraid, back to the LATE PLEISTOCENE EPOCH roughly 125,000 years ago when the landmass was formed… 

PART 2 will show how the ‘Hole’, the promontory and the lighthouse now look in 2015 from the ocean. During a recent highly successful whale-watching expedition with Charlotte & Diane from the BMMRO, we took the RHIB close to the point and took a seaward look at it from both sides, the first time I had done so. A few days before we’d been to Hole-in-the-Wall for birdwatching purposes by conventional means – the thirty mile round trip by truck along the track from the ‘Y’ of the Highway (NB no hire cars allowed). You can read an early post about this perilous adventure in TO THE LIGHTHOUSE…

HOLE-IN-THE-WALL LIGHTHOUSE: THE LANTERN ROOMHole-in-the-Wall, Abaco - Lantern Room (Keith Salvesen)

Credits: S. Wright, RH, marinas.com, Jessica Arrington, Jack Bowers, Luc Lavallee, Tara Lavallee, open source images